September 10, 2024: Tracking Francine. Locally heavy rain likely this week. I am monitoring the risk of severe weather, as well.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Thursday through at least Sunday. I will monitor next Monday and Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. The tropical system will move into our region Thursday and Friday. The overall risk of damaging wind and tornadoes appears small. Perhaps not zero. I will monitor it and send out app messages if necessary.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am tracking a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. It will move into our region late this week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain is likely along the path of low pressure. Drought conditions could help mitigate flooding issues. With that said, if the rain is heavier than expected then local flash flooding will be possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Some strong wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Overall, it appears most of the wind gusts will be in the 10 to 25 mph range. Locally higher.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Use caution with dry vegetation. Some counties have burn bans. Check with your local emergency management office.

Dry air along with very strong and deep mixing may create some volatile burning conditions today and Wednesday. Relative humidity will dip to around 20% over much of the region this afternoon and 25-30% Wednesday afternoon. Mixing heights will reach 4-6kft AGL today and 7-9kft AGL Wednesday. Fortunately, winds will remain light both days. The remnants of Tropical Storm Francine will bring much needed rain to the region Thursday through Saturday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

NWS Paducah, Kentucky graphic. Double click images to enlarge them.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 11:02 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the south. A chance of a shower over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:53 PM
Moonset: 11:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered west. A bit more numerous east northeast.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:39 PM
Moonset: 12:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 2:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 3:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot today and tomorrow. Some counties will hit 90 degrees.
2. Fire concerns into Wednesday. Avoid burning brush.
3. Thickening clouds Wednesday night and Thursday as Francine moves our way.
4. Remnants of Francine will push into our area Thursday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain is likely. Gusty winds. I will monitor the risk of tornadoes, as well.
5. The system may stall overo ur region or slow considerably.
6. Temperatures will vary into early next week based on cloud cover.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone.

The primary weather concern today and tomorrow will be hot temperatures. Some smokey sky conditions. There are large fires in Canada. That smoke has been drifting into our region.

I continue to track Tropical Storm Francine. It did not strengthen overnight. That is good news. Some strengthening is likely, however, before landfall.

Morning satellite view of Francine

We started talking about this last week. Confidence continues to increase that our region is going to be impacted by widespread rain, gusty wind, and a small risk of tornadoes.

The rain will arrive over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee Thursday afternoon and evening. It will then spread northward.

I can’t completely rule out a shower late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but the chances increase dramatically as we move deeper into Thursday afternoon and evening.

Rain will overspread the region Thursday night and Friday. See the future-cast radars farther down in this weather blog update.

Locally heavy rain will be possible along the path of Francine. Generally, I am forecasting a widespread one to two inches of rain. Then, there will be pockets of greater than two inches.

As always, totals can vary even within one county. Keep that in mind.

Here are some of the ensembles. The GFS and EC ensemble models. This shows you what they are forecasting for rainfall totals. They are similar.

GFS model.

EC model

What is the probability of two or more inches of rain?

This is our best chance of a soaking rain (widespread) in quite some time. Over a month. Remember, some counties have received little or no rainfall over the past five to seven weeks.

Gusty winds may accompany the system. At this time, I am forecasting 10 to 20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph. Some data shows 30 to 35 mph gusts over lakes and flatlands. Either way, this does not appear to be a damaging wind event.

As far as the risk of tornadoes on the east northeast side of the low, it appears to be minimal, but perhaps not zero. The last tropical system brought us several tornadoes.

The conditions don’t appear all that favorable for tornadoes, but I will need to keep a close eye on it.

Most tropical storm/hurricane tornadoes occur on the east northeast side of the low pressure center.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms. I will keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday evening. The SPC said they believe the tornado risk Friday is low.

Here is what they said

DISCUSSION… Severe potential appears low through the period. Primary concern for D4/Friday is any lingering tornado threat associated with the remnants of TC Francine. It is forecast by NHC to drift into the Mid-South/MS Valley to Lower OH Valley vicinity. Latest guidance indicates further weakening of low-level wind fields on Friday, likely becoming inadequate to sustain a synoptically evident TC tornado threat.

I will keep an eye on it and send out app messages if the forecast changes.

Here is the SPC severe weather outlook for Thursday. Light green means lightning is possible. Dark green is where a few severe storms are possible (well to our south).

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

Let’s look at rainfall totals. This continues to be adjusted as we grow closer to the time frame.

This is from the NWS/NOAA/WPC

Here was last night’s update

Here is this morning’s update Similar.

I do expect the system to wind down and weaken over our region. Steering currents are weak.

Showers may linger into Saturday, Sunday, and perhaps even Monday. Activity won’t be as widespread Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.

Peak timing will be during the heat of the day. Afternoon and evening hours. Activity will likely wane at night. I have chances in the 20% to 40% range Saturday through Monday.

If you have outdoor acitivties, then monnitor updates and radars.

Here are some National Hurricane Center graphics concerning Francine

The D means that it will be a tropical depression when it arrives in our region.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.