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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:56 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. A chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible. I can’t rule out some strong storms. Locally heavy rainfall totals, as well.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 15 mph. Gustier near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Perhaps numerous. Lower confidence on coverage.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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September 10, 2016
Saturday: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Questionable on how much coverage.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning possible. brief downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-86 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. There remains questions on precipitation coverage. Have a plan B just in case.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a couple of strong storms. Mainly our far eastern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5. Low to moderate.
Moonrise will be at 2:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 p.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Decreasing clouds. Less humid. Cooler. Rain should have come to an end (far eastern counties small chance of remaining shower/storm early in the evening)
What impact is expected? Rain should be ending.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should be over by Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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September 11, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid. Pleasant day.
What impact is expected? Patchy morning fog.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid. Nice night!
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Keep in mind that patchy fog will be possible this week during the late night hours and early morning hours.
September 12, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Nice day.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Pleasant. Will monitor for patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 0-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 13, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Light and variable/east/southeast winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:03 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patch fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 00%. KY~ 00% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 14, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:02 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Maybe some patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 00% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly cloudy. A small chance for storms in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some isolated storms
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2016
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate to high (depending on clouds)
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A 50% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.
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September 17, 2016
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5. Most likely no.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Have a plan B.
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Cold front arrives on Saturday!
- Much cooler on Saturday night into Monday.
- Less humid
- Watching a few more fronts next week
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night. Some of the storms could be locally strong. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible. Lightning is a concern for outdoor sporting events.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
The main weather story will be a strong cold front that will sweep through our region on Saturday. The front will likely push through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the morning and early afternoon hours. The front will likely clear our entire region by late afternoon.
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. There remains some question on coverage. Instability levels will be low over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Especially true if the front pushes through during the morning hours. There is a chance that storms on Saturday morning could produce locally heavy rain. I am struggling with how much coverage there will be. Have a plan B.
CAPE values (a measure of energy for storms) may be a bit higher over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. If heavy storms were to develop then they would most likely be over our eastern counties. That would include the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Let’s keep an eye on instability levels.
There will be a small risk for severe weather. The severe weather risk will be highly dependent on CAPE level.
Much cooler and drier air will filter into the region on Saturday night. Expect morning lows to dip into the 50’s across much of the area. I noticed 40’s in the forecast to our north! Fall can’t be too far away. Dew points will also be dropping. The lower dew points mean a nice feel to the air. It won’t be muggy. Highs on Sunday may remain in the 70’s! We will warm up a little bit on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will rise back into the 80’s. Dew points will be a little bit higher, as well.
I am watching a weak front for Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Low confidence.
A stronger cold front may arrive next weekend. Plenty of time to monitor that subject. Some of the long range guidance indicates a wet pattern for the Missouri and Ohio Valleys next weekend into the following week. This would be on the edge of the ridge of high pressure to our southeast. The placement of the high will be key as to where the heavy rain threat will be located.
Don’t forget, October and November, are active severe weather months in our region. Fall does not mean severe weather is over. Normally we do have at least one or two events. Tornadoes are not uncommon during the fall months.
Were you thinking the summer was warm? The final numbers are in. It was certainly warm. It wasn’t the warmest ever. Here are the rankings.
It was the warmest summer on record for overnight minimums.
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My summer forecast mentioned two areas of drought concern (in the eastern United States). I marked those with red boxes.
.Here is the latest drought monitor. I was close. I was a bit too far west and south across northern Illinois and Indiana. My concern in our region was flash drought. Where rain would just suddenly stop for a few weeks. That did occur in some areas. For the most part it was a very wet summer. Extreme summer.
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Saturday night will be cool and dry. Sunday will be nice! Highs only in the 70’s on Sunday with low humidity levels.
We will warm up a little bit on Monday and Tuesday. Nothing extreme. A weak cold front approaches the region on Wednesday and perhaps a stronger front towards the end of next week.
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Those heading out to the football games can expect warm and humid conditions. A few storms can’t be ruled out.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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Rainfall totals will continue to vary. Some spots picked up more than two inches of rain on Thursday. Others received no rain at all. That was the forecast. Seemed to have worked out just about right.
A few more storms will be possible as we move into Friday night and Saturday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible. The front should clear the region by late Saturday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold front.
Rainfall totals will continue to range from little or no rain to over one inch of rain. Thunderstorms can drop a quick one to two inches.
Here is what the NAM model guidance is showing for rainfall totals (Friday through Saturday). Click to enlarge
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Here is what the GFS model is showing. Some areas may not experience much rain on Saturday.
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night: Scattered storms possible. Small risk for severe weather. Risk isn’t zero. Monitor updates. Evening storms could produce gusty winds. Lightning is a concern for outdoor events.
Saturday: A few storms are possible. Severe weather risk is small. Perhaps some gusty winds. We will need to monitor western Kentucky and Tennessee where instability might be a bit stronger.
Saturday night into Monday: No severe weather anticipated.
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Updated wording for Saturday’s rain chances
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The main concern will be some thunderstorms. An incoming cold front arrives on Saturday.
We will have some storm chances today through Saturday afternoon. Lightning will be the main concern. A few reports of strong winds.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
