Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 1, 2024. Welcome to meteorological autumn.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

.


.

Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.  A chance of lightning today along the MO/AR and KY/TN border southward.  Lower chances north of there.

I am monitoring the chance of lightning Wednesday and Thursday.  Perhaps Friday (depending on the speed of the cold front).

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.   

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  NO.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees?  NO.   

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees?  NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees?  NO.

9. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NO.

10.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NO.

11.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

.

Fire weather risk level.

Sunday: 4.  Low risk.
Sunday night: 4.  Low risk.
Monday: 5.  Medium risk.
Monday night: 4.  Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A cold front will push south of the region today, and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning across southern parts of southeast MO and west KY. Dry weather with daily minimum RH values of 30-40% and good mixing are expected Monday and Tuesday. RH values will rise and rain chances will return beginning Wednesday and persist through Friday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

.

 

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



.

.

.

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly far southern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning.  Tapering afternoon and evening.  Mainly far south.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°

Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 85°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.  Patchy fog.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Less humid.  Patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°

Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:54 AM
Moonset: 7:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  East northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  7. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation:   Isolated
Timing of the precipitation:  After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°

Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways (southern counties)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:53 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  East northeast becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~  40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 8:08 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%

Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  East northeast  at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: East at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:48 AM
Moonset: 8:29 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°

Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°

Winds will be from this direction:  South southwest becoming northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~  0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°

Winds will be from this direction: East at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 8:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.



.

Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.     Welcome to meteorological autumn!
    2.     A few remaining showers and thunderstorms today (mainly far south).
    3.     Cooler air is arriving in the area.
    4.     Tropical moisture moving northward mid-week.
    5.     Strong cold front late week.  Nice/cooler weather behind that front.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.
More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

.

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Welcome to meteorological autumn!  Meteorologists consider September, October, and November to be autumn.

I for one am ready for autumn temperatures and fall foliage!

Well, some locations received quite a bit of rain over the last 48 hours.  There have been pockets of one to three inches in some counties.  Even some isolated higher totals.

Other areas remain bone dry.  A wide range of rainfall totals across the area.

Here are the radar indicated rain totals.  This is what has already fallen.

The yellow and red colors represent one to three inches of rain.  Spotty.

Double click on the image to enlarge it.

Some of you will remain dry through this event.  I know you need rain.  Some locations have been dry for four+ weeks.

This morning, the rain continues to fall along the MO/AR and KY/TN border.  This will continue through the morning hours and taper off as we move into the afternoon and evening.

Cooler air is filtering into the region.  Some locations will dip into the 50s tonight and tomorrow night.  Less humid air, as well.

Labor Day will deliver amazing weather.  I hope you can get out and enjoy it.

We do have a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.  That will spread clouds and rain showers northward late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  A cold front will approach our region from the northwest during that time, as well.

You can see that disturbance on this satellite image.  You can also see the cold front moving across our region.

This will set the stage for somewhat warmer and more humid air to move back into the region.  Nothing extreme.

It will also spark scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Peak chances will be Wednesday into Friday.

A cold front will move through the region Friday and Friday night.  This will deliver cooler and less humid conditions.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely, but I will keep an eye on it.

Temperatures this coming weekend will be cooler with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  I can’t rule out some upper 40s next weekend.   It will feel a bit more like autumn.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

 


.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

.

.

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

 

_______________________________________

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

.

This  animation is the NAM 3k Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

 

.

This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

.

..

..

.
.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.


 

 

Comments are closed.