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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 19th through April 25th
Current risk: LOW RISK.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comment: I will be monitoring today through Sunday night.
At this time, the tornado risk appears minimal this weekend
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts. Have a plan B, just in case storms threaten.
Storms are possible towards the middle/end of next week, but it is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Monday.
Another chance of lightning next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE.
There is a low risk of severe weather today and tonight. The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail.
A few severe thundesrtorm warnings are possible.
The yellow zone is a slight risk (level 2). The dark green is a marginal risk (level 1). The light green is where sub-severe storms are possible. Overall, the risk is low.
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Here is the severe weather outlook for Sunday and Sunday night.
The bulk of this threat will be on Sunday night.
The risk is higher across our western counties. The risk is lower the farther east you travel.
The orange is a level three risk. The yellow is a level two risk. The dark green is the lowest level risk (level one). The light green is where storms are possible, but they should remain below severe levels.
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3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. A flood watch has been issued for Ste. Genevieve and Randolph Counties. My two farthest northwest counties.
Locally heavy rain is possible this weekend over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. If heavy rain develops, then some flash flooding could occur. Ongoing river and overland flooding will continue.
The heaviest rain will likely fall to our west and northwest.
Rainfall forecast (totals will vary based on thunderstorm placement)
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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Forecast discussion.
- A mild weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lower chances as you travel east southeast. See graphics below.
- Don’t cancel any weekend plans. Monitor updates and radars. Have a plan B, and then go about your activities.
- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday night. A cold front will push across the region.
- A few storms could be intense this weekend. Locally heavy downpours.
- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the middle of next week.
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Major flooding continues in some counties.
Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas. Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.
River and lake stages. Forecasts. Click here.
We are waking up to mild conditions. Here were the 6 am temperatures.
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Radar at 6 am showed widespread showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
This activity was moving northeast.
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There will be a WIDE range of rain probabilities tonight into Sunday night. See the graphics below.
Portions of the region will not see any rain until Sunday night/Monday. Keep that in mind.
Missouri and Illinois are expected to have the highest precipitation coverage today into Sunday morning. Then, chances increase area-wide as we move into Sunday night and Monday.
The system has slowed by about six to twelve hours.
Let me show you that in graphical form.
These graphics show you the rain probability numbers from tonight into Sunday night. In other words, what is the % chance of rain?
If you have outdoor plans, check for updates and check the radars. Have a plan B. Then, you will be prepared.
Radar links are at the bottom of this page.
As you can see, today’s rain probabilities are higher north-northwest vs south-southeast.
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Saturday night’s rain probabilities. Again, higher over Missouri and Illinois.
A sharp gradient from northwest to southeast.
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Sunday’s rain probabilities.
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Sunday night’s rain probabilities. This is when the cold front begins to move across the region.
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Monday’s rain probabilities.
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Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model. What radar might look like from tonight into Sunday morning.
Notice the bulk of the rain falls across Missouri and Illinois.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Severe Weather Concerns
Again, a few storms could become severe today into Sunday night.
For today and tonight, the primary concern will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The concern will be a few storms producing damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low.
As shown above, this is today’s outlook. A low risk of severe at any given spot. A few reports of wind and hail are possible.
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The risk of severe weather is a bit higher on Sunday evening and night, especially over southeast Missouri.
A line of storms will push west to east across the region.
With time, the line will weaken.
Thus, the risk appears lower across Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
You can see that line of storms on this future-cast animation. Notice how the line weakens.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
FV3 model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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