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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Your Seven Day Video Forecast
Beau’s Longer Video Update
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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
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Saturday to Saturday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Possible. It will be colder this coming week. Monitor updates. Some days could produce wind chill values in the teens and perhaps colder.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. A wintry mix is possible next week. I am watching Monday night into much of the work-week. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Yes. Freezing rain is possible Sunday night, Monday night into Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Thursday. Confidence is low when it comes to amounts and details. Monitor updates. Sunday night’s event would be light. Patchy freezing sleet and drizzle. It only take a little frozen liquid to cause problems on bridges, overpasses, sidewalks, decks, and other.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Saturday, January 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds from southwest to northeast. A chance of a late afternoon shower over portions of the region. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None most of the day. Wet roads late in the day far S SW.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:15 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Thickening clouds with a chance of rain. Check radars.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:07 AM
Moonset: 12:09 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Sunday, January 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy with rain likely. Rain tapering through the day. Turning colder. Highs early in the day over most of the region. Then, temperatures falling into the thirties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early, then tapering.
Timing of the precipitation: Most numerous before noon. Tapering coverage after noon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing drizzle and sleet.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 23° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the latest weather forecast. Have a plan B if freezing drizzle develops.
Moonrise: 11:37 AM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, January 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of patchy light freezing drizzle or sleet during the early morning and late afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 5:18 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 5 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 12:10 PM
Moonset: 2:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:19 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 12:49 PM
Moonset: 3:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 5:20 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 15° to 18°
Southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 20°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 16° to 20°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roadways. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 1:35 AM
Moonset: 4:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through February 5th: Not at this time.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Quiet today. Increasing clouds.
- Rain chances ramp up this evening into tonight. Widespread showers.
- Freezing drizzle possible Sunday night.
- On and off precipitation chances Monday through Thursday.
- Active pattern continues.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates concerning the chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow next week. A couple of storm systems may impact the region.
Current Weather Discussion
Good day everyone,
We continue to be in an active weather pattern.
The primary weather topic today will be precipitation chances tonight, Sunday night, Monday and Monday night, Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, and Wednesday night into Thursday.
Rain totals tonight into Sunday will likely range from 1/4 of an inch up to 1/2 an inch with locally higher totals possible.
Precipitation chances will taper Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon.
Then, patchy freezing drizzle may develop Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Remember, it only takes a little bit of freezing drizzle to cause icy roadways and surfaces.
Use care if out and about Sunday night into Sunday morning.
I can’t rule out the National Weather Service is showing some sort of winter weather advisory. This will depend on just how much freezing drizzle is likely to accumulate on surfaces.
There will be a lull in the precipitation Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
Then, additional precipitation will likely develop Monday night into Tuesday. This precipitation will likely be frozen, as well.
At this time, it appears that freezing rain and sleet will be the most likely precipitation type.
We need to monitor the latest weather data moving forward.
I will be updating the blog frequently over the coming days. I will also try and keep the videos updated and the Facebook page.
If you notice, I am doing videos now. You can go to YouTube and type in Beau Dodson. Then, follow me there.
We are also getting ready to make coffee cups and merchandise. Stay tuned on that.
A series of precipitation events will impact the region over the coming week.
Another wave develops Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Another one Wednesday night and Thursday. Just not sure on totals.
If the high pressure is strong enough, then it will shunt the precipitation chances south. If that happens, then we won’t have any impacts from the weather. Let’s continue to keep an eye on it.
I can’t rule out advisories of some sort.
There is a higher than usual amount of uncertainty surrounding this weeks weather.
Most of that, again, stems from the high pressure center being so strong. A stronger high keeps us dry. Does that rhyme? I may need to slogan that!
The primary concern won’t be how much ice falls. At this time, we do not see large ice totals. Not an ice storm as much as an ice event.
The concern will be icy roadways.
In 2008 we had a light freezing rain event. It feel on very cold roadways. Everything froze. There were thousands of wrecks in the region. It was a mess.
Let’s not do that again.
The longer range shows a lot of warm air in February. Data keeps waffling on the details.
I hope not. I don’t want tornado outbreaks in February. If the warm air wins, then that is what will happen.
Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. I vote no on that. Bring me a bit more winter and THEN let’s settle in to spring.
Stay tuned for updates concerning this week’s weather forecast.
Some travel impacts are possible/likely.
The GFS continues to be very active in the long range.
Let’s look at that.
System 1
System 2
System 3
System 4
System 11
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers January 27th through February 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers February 3rd through February 9th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers February 10th through February 23rd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
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March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
May Temperature Outlook
May Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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