Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Beau’s Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers redeveloping from the west southwest moving north northeast.  A chance of a thunderstorm towards evening.  Patchy dense fog.  The bulk of the rain will arrive from mid to late afternoon/evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  More likely during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Patchy dense fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  A flood watch for portions of the region.  Locally heavy rain.   Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Mild.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.  A few storms could produce gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated radars.
Moonrise: 5:16 AM
Moonset: 2:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm possible (mainly during the morning).  Mild for December.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous (esp morning)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time (more likely during the AM hours)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Ending before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~  42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:18 AM
Moonset: 3:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent
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Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild, again. A slight chance of late afternoon showers over mainly our northwest counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~  10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.  Coverage of precipitation will be higher north vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:   Numerous north.  Scattered far south.
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:17 AM
Moonset: 4:23 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Tuesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~  20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning hours.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 10 to 25 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 35°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:08 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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We have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. 1.   Mild temperatures to continue through Tuesday.  Then, temperatures turn colder.
   2.   Wet weather into Monday night.
   3.   Thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into tomorrow morning.  Locally heavy rain.  A flood watch has been issued for portions of the region (see that info at the top of the page and on the video update).
   4.   A period of cold weather begins Tuesday night and will linger off/on over the next two weeks.  Several shots of cold weather are possible.  It is too early to know if snow or ice will be a concern.  Monitor updates.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I don’t usually update on Saturday, but since we are expecting active weather I decided to update the blog.

We do have a flood watch for portions of the region.  See the top of the blog page and the video for more information.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move into the region later today and especially tonight.  Locally heavy rain will be possible.

See the future-cast radars below.  The Hrrr and NAM-3K model are picking up on how everything will transpire.

Thankfully, the threat of severe weather continues to appear minimal.  I will keep an eye on the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  Then, into western Kentucky, as well.

For now, the threat appears to be low.  Some storms could produce strong wind gusts.  I can not completely rule out a warning or two, but the risk is small.

Here is the official severe weather outlook.

Light green is where lightning is possible.  Dark green is a level one severe weather risk.  It nips my northwest Tennessee counties (as of 8 am).

Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across a good chunk of the area between now and Sunday afternoon.  Locally higher amounts are likely.  Especially in the flood watch zone.  I would not be surprised if some locations receive three inches of rain.

Double click images to enlarge them.

This will lead to sharp rises on area creeks and streams, field flooding, ditch flooding, and low-land flooding.  Commonly flooded roadways will have issues, as well.

Avoid flooded roadways, as always.  The risk is a bit higher since this is an overnight event.  It can be difficult to see flooded roadways at night.  Use care.

Rain will continue into Sunday morning as the area of low pressure pulls away from the region.  Some wrap-around precipitation will linger.

In addition to the above, we do have a chance of fog today into tomorrow.  Again, use care if you are traveling.

A severe weather outbreak is likely to our south today and tonight.  If you are traveling south, then make sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings.

Here is the regional severe weather outlook.  A moderate risk has been issued for portions of the southlands.

Clouds will linger into Sunday night.

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Monday and Tuesday.

Another system will pull into the region Monday afternoon and night.  This will bring another round of showers.  An isolated thunderstorm will be possible, as well.

Here is that system on the GFS model.  A quick hitter.  Additional rain totals of 0.01″ to 0.30″ are anticipated.

Rainfall totals from the Monday system.  A bit higher north vs south on this one.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Colder air arrives Tuesday night.  Nothing extreme from this first shot of cold air.

Seasonably cold Tuesday night into next weekend.

I continue to watch bitterly cold air beyond the long range forecast.  It is still too early to know how cold.  It is still too early to know if snow or ice will be a concern.

I will monitor trends.   The pattern continues to look active over the next few weeks with several chances of precipitation.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the NAM model.

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Let’s look farther out.  The Monday and Wednesday systems.

GFS model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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EC model

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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