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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

*NEW* Zoom interactive radar (with storm chaser streams)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

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What you need to know

Key Points

1.   A few storms could become severe Saturday afternoon and night.
2.   This is a conditional risk.  That means there remain some questions about the extent of the threat.
3.   The primary time frame will be 3 PM to 11 PM Saturday.
4.   Have your Beau Dodson Weather app on.  Check it.  Make sure you have not logged out of the app.
5.   Have THREE to FIVE ways of receiving your severe weather warnings.
6.   Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A warning means to seek shelter.  A warning is a higher threat and means to seek shelter immediately.  Severe weather may occur in or near your location.

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Here is Facebooks’ Severe Weather Q&A threads.
Link https://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

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The latest blog updates will be posted here at the top of Beau’s severe weather blog.

April 30, 2022

9:42 PM

The severe weather risk is subsiding.

I can’t rule out another warning for hail, but for the most part these storms are just going to produce frequent lightning, very heavy downpours, small hail, and perhaps a few reports of 30 to 45 mph wind gusts.

Instability continues to lesson with the loss of daytime heating.

8:19 PM

Perry, Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Butler, Stoddard, and Scott Counties in southeast Missouri.
Jackson, Franklin, Union, and Jefferson Counties in southern Illinois.

Thunderstorms have been forming along an incoming cold front.

One round of storms, earlier this evening/late afternoon, produced several reports of wind damage and hail.

This new line of storms could produce pockets of quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. It is moving east at 40 mph.

Storms today have pulsed up and down. Meaning, they increase in intensity and then decrease. Then, pulse back up.

That will likely continue over the next couple of hours.

Be weather aware through the evening. A few more reports of wind damage and hail will be possible.

A tornado watch remains in effect for the area, as well. That means conditions are favorable for tornadoes. A warning means to seek shelter.

Radars
Southeast Missouri
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_pbluff.htm

Southern Illinois
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm

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PAH extends Tornado Watch for Alexander, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Union, Williamson [IL] and Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard, Wayne [MO] till 10:00 PM CDT

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7:35 PM

Randolph and Perry Counties. Southern Illinois.

A new severe thunderstorm has formed in southern Randolph County, IL. This storm could produce quarter size (or larger) hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

A tornado watch is also in effect. Be weather aware until this storm passes your location.

The storm is moving east/northeast at 40 mph.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm

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6:15 PM

Bollinger and far northern Stoddard Counties.

A severe thunderstorm is approaching from Wayne County. This storm has a history of large hail and high wind.
The storm was located over Greenville, MO (at 6:15 PM).

It is moving east/northeast at 40 mph.

If this storm maintains its strength then hail and high wind will be possible across portions of Bollinger County and perhaps far northern Stoddard County.

You can track this storm on the radar
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_pbluff.htm

 

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5:41 PM

Jefferson and Franklin Counties.

Thunderstorms are approaching from the west. These storms have occasionally produced hail and high winds.

The storms have been weakening over the past 20 to 30 minutes.

The storms will push into Jefferson and Franklin Counties over the coming 20 to 40 minutes.

These thunderstorms could produce pockets of nickel to quarter size hail and 50 mph wind gusts. The storms could strengthen and you should remain weather aware until the storms pass your location.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm

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5:30 PM

Perry County, Illinois.

I held off a bit on sending a message to your county. The storm is weakening.

A severe thunderstorm is moving through portions of Randolph and Jackson Counties in southern Illinois. It is moving east/northeast at 40 mph.

The storm has been weakening over the past 20 minutes.

It was producing very large hail in Perry County, Missouri. It has since dropped its main hail core.

The storm could still produce a few reports of nickel to quarter size hail. A few reports of 50+ mph wind will also be possible.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm

 

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The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Southwestern Perry County in south central Illinois…
Northwestern Jackson County in southern Illinois…

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 524 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast
of Chester, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include…
Willisville and Ava.

 

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A tornado warned cell is moving through Perry County, Missouri. It is moving east/northeast at 40 mph.

Perry County: Rotation has increased just west of Brewer. Sereno, Lithium, and McBride are in the immediate path.

Areas further northeast in Randolph and Jackson Counties should monitor this storm.

Very large hail is possible with this storm. Damaging wind gusts, as well.

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5:04 PM

Jackson County, Illinois.

A severe thunderstorm is moving through Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri. This storm could produce golf-ball size hail or larger.

This storm is starting to turn more east vs northeast. If this continues then portions of Jackson County, Illinois will also be impacted by this storm.

The storm is showing signs of very large hail, damaging wind, and has the potential to produce a tornado.

Residents of Jackson County, Illinois should be monitoring this storm.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm

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5 PM

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 458 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
  WAS LOCATED NEAR PERRYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
  LITHIUM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

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4:59 PM

Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast MO. Randolph County, IL.

A severe thunderstorm is moving through Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties. This storm could produce golf-ball size hail or larger.

There is also rotation with this storm and a tornado is possible. Seek shelter now.

The storm is moving northeast at 40 mph.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm
and
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_stl.htm

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4:15 Radar Update

A band of showers and thunderstorms has formed along the cold front. Some of those storms are now severe (one moving into Ste Genevieve County, MO)

Other storms along the cold front could become severe over the coming one to three hours.

These storms are moving east/northeast at 40 mph.

Additional showers and thunderstorms have formed across portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Guidance showed us the idea of two lines. That is happening.

The line over southern Illinois and western Kentucky is not severe. It does have cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours.

Some small hail could develop from these storms, as well.

The risk of severe weather over the next one to three hours is greatest with the southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois storms (closer to the cold front).

A lower risk for the storms further east.

Continue to monitor updates over the coming hours.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm?

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4:08 PM

Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast MO. Randolph County, IL.

A severe thunderstorm is approaching Ste Genevieve County from the southwest. The storm is moving northeast at 40 mph.

The storm will mainly impact Ste Genevieve County and may clip northern Perry County, MO. It will then move into Randolph County, IL.

This storm could produce damaging wind and hail. It also has some rotation with it. A tornado watch is in effect for the area, as well.

Remember, a watch means to monitor updates. Conditions are favorable for severe weather. A warning means to seek shelter until the storm passes.

Radars
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_marion.htm
and
https://weatherobservatory.com/radar_stl.htm

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4:05 PM

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Dunklin and Pemiscot Counties in the Missouri Bootheel.

Areas in and NEAR this watch zone should monitor weather updates over the coming hours.

A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms.

A WARNING means that severe weather is imminent and you should seek appropriate shelter.

The watch will continue until 11 PM.

The primary concern will be a few thunderstorms producing damaging wind and hail.

Additional watch information can be viewed here
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0165.html

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2:30 PM

NWS Memphis, Tennessee graphic

 

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2:10 PM

A tornado watch has been issued for Butler, Stoddard, Scott, Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry, and Ste Genevieve Counties in southeast Missouri.

A tornado watch has been issued for Randolph, Perry, Jefferson, Jackson, Franklin, Williamson, Union, and Alexander Counties in southern Illinois.

Areas in and NEAR this watch zone should monitor weather updates over the coming hours.

A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms that could produce a tornado.

A WARNING means that severe weather is imminent and you should seek appropriate shelter.

The watch will continue until 8 PM.

The primary concern will be a few thunderstorms producing damaging wind and hail. Perhaps a tornado, as well.

Additional watch information can be viewed here
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0164.html

2:08 PM

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1:30 PM Update

The Storm Prediction Center will likely issue a watch for this zone (circled)

Comments from SPC

Current dew points.  Models have handled the dew points well.  You can see those lower values over portions of the region.

Models were showing that.

Dew points are one ingredient for severe thunderstorms.  Dew points are a bit higher right on the cold front and ahead of it.

Double click images to enlarge them

 

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Good morning, everyone.

We have plenty of clouds in the region this morning.  That will help keep the atmosphere stabilized into the early afternoon hours.

9 AM Satellite

We are going to have to see how much clearing occurs over the coming hours.  That will factor into how unstable the atmosphere will become later today.

Radar showed a dying line of showers and thunderstorms pushing into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

The Storm Prediction Center  has outlined our region in a level one and two risk. (keep reading below these graphics)

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

Ignore the thick black lines.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

They have the greatest threat over the western half of the region.  This makes sense based on instability levels that are forecast right ahead of the cold front.

All the guidance is showing the bulk of the CAPE (energy for storms to tap into) right along the cold front.  Lessening CAPE to the east.

You can see that on this CAPE forecast map.  CAPE is basically energy that stores use as fuel.  Higher CAPE numbers typically mean a higher risk of severe storms (if they form).

This is a CAPE and hodo map.  We use hodographs to see wind shear and other information.  We can use them to help in forecasting tornadoes.

The colors are the CAPE values.  You can see where the front is across wester Illinois into south-central Missouri and then south from there.

High CAPE numbers right on the front.  Then, lower CAPE to the east.  The lower CAPE to the east is being forecast because of a tongue of lower dew points.  Perhaps more clouds, as well.

There are some questions about how the models are portraying the area of lower CAPE.  I will be monitoring that information over the coming hours.

Bottom line:

Thunderstorms will form in western Illinois southward into Missouri and Arkansas between 1 PM and 4 PM.

These thunderstorms will move eastward from there.

Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.

The tornado risk is not high, but is not zero.

The forecast is for the line of storms to push deeper into southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee after 5 PM.

There is the possibility that a second area of storms forms across portions of southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee before that time.  I am going to have to monitor that potential.

You can see those storms on the future-cast radar.  Several guidance packages show this possibility.

Either way, plan on some thunderstorms later this afternoon into the overnight hours.  Peak time for the severe risk will be 3 PM to 9 PM.

The line will be weakening as we move into the late evening hours onward.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is possible later today.  Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A WARNING means to seek shelter.  A WARNING is more serious.  A WARNING means severe weather is imminent in or near your location.  Seek shelter.

Let’s look at some more data

Here is the high resolution Hrrr model guidance.  Future-cast radar.  What radar might look like later today.  Keep in mind, this is a model.

3 PM

5 PM

7 PM

9 PM

11 PM

1 AM Sunday

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St Louis, Missouri, NWS graphic

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Memphis, Tennessee NWS graphic

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NWS Paducah, Kentucky graphic

 

 

 

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8:30 AM

Update will be posted by 9:15 AM

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April 29, 2022

8 AM Update

Saturday and Saturday night

Our region will be in the warm sector of a storm system Saturday.

An area of low pressure will pass well to our north.  This system will drag a cold front into the region during the late morning and afternoon hours.

There may be a few dying showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning, but the bulk of the region may be dry before noon.

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Scattered storms.

If you have outdoor plans, then go about your plans.  Monitor updates.  Monitor radars.  Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.

There will be some instability to work with.  CAPE values (energy for storms to tap into) will likely exceed 1000.  There will be some wind shear to work with, as well.

CAPE values Saturday afternoon and evening.  Notice those lower CAPE values over portions of our region.  Then, higher CAPE values right on the front.

There are some questions about this event.  There appears to be a tongue of lower dew points pushing northward ahead of the front.  All models show this.  Then, it pools higher dew points immediately on the front.

This raises some questions.  Those lower dew points could reduce the severe weather threat.

You can see that on this dew point map.

Notice the blues right on the front (drier air right behind the front).   Then, notice that area of lower dew points ahead of the blues (in between the blues).

Let me show you the Hrrr model guidance.  One high res model.  This is how it handles the Saturday afternoon and evening’s thunderstorms.  Keep in mind, this is one model.

I think it has a decent handle on the event.  There are questions about how many storms form.  Forcing is fairly weak along the front.  It is greater to our north.

Weak forcing could mean scattered storms vs numerous storms.

With time, the storms may congeal into a line.

7 AM Saturday

1 PM Saturday

4 PM Saturday

7 PM Saturday

Around 10 PM Saturday

This is not a slam dunk severe weather forecast.  The bottom line is that we will need to monitor storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Thunderstorms that form could produce damaging wind and hail.  A few reports.  There is enough spin in the atmosphere to produce a tornado or two, as well.  This appears to be a short-lived tornado threat.  It does not appear that long-tracked tornadoes will be a concern.

Either way, let’s monitor weather updates Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  There may be some watches and warnings issued by the SPC and the NWS.

I will send out app messages if necessary.

The live severe weather blog has been activated, as well.  Here is that link CLICK HERE

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level one and two severe weather risk.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

Ignore the thick black lines.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

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April 28, 2022
9:00 AM Update.

For safety tips, scroll further down.

We have a risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  I am also watching next Tuesday.  For now, however, let’s concentrate on Saturday.

We have a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms.

What does conditional mean?  It means there are some ingredients that may not come together just right in order for severe thunderstorms to develop.

There remain some questions about cloud cover and ongoing precipitation Saturday morning.  That could help stabilize the atmosphere.

It is possible that the atmosphere doesn’t recharge.  If that is the case, then severe weather won’t develop.

If the atmosphere is able to destabilize, then thunderstorms would likely develop Saturday afternoon and evening.

Initially, there is a chance of a few supercell thunderstorms.  If those develop, then damaging wind and large hail would be the primary concern.  I can’t rule out a tornado.  Long-tracked tornadoes appear unlikely.

Supercells would eventually expand into a line of showers and thunderstorms.  Once a line forms, the primary concern will be damaging wind gusts.

QLCS tornadoes would also be a concern.  At this time, this does not look to be a big tornado outbreak.  As we know, it only takes on tornado to cause problems.

The St Louis, Missouri, NWS Office and the Lincoln, Illinois, NWS Office have both discussed the above concerns.

Here is their technical discussion (for those interested).

Lincoln, Illinois NWS discussion

and St Louis, MO NWS discussion.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level one and two severe weather risk.  This is for Saturday afternoon and night.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

A QLCS is an abbreviation for a Quasi-Linear Convective System. This can be  defined as a strong line of thunderstorms that is not perfectly straight.

QLCS tornadoes tend to be short-lived.  Embedded in the rain.  Difficult to issue warnings on (they develop and dissipate rapidly).

Damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes would be a concern in the squall line.  Remember, most of our tornadoes are QLCS.

Supercell storms tend to produce higher end severe weather events.  They can produce long tracked tornadoes.  Some could be strong.

Supercell tornadoes tend to last longer.  They also tend to be higher EF-scale in their ratings.

Charge your devices in case of power outages.

 

What you can do to prepare for severe weather

Here is some safety advice from the NWS concerning sheltering from storms.  https://www.weather.gov/ama/severesafetytips

1. Have a family safety plan.  Discuss it with your family.  Make sure your kids know what to do in the event of severe weather.

2. Have your devices fully charged.

3. Change the batteries in your NOAA weather radio.

4. Have THREE TO FIVE ways of receiving your severe weather information.  All sources can and have failed in the past.  The Beau Dodson Weather app is one of those ways, NOAA weather radio, WEA on your phones (google it), local television and radar media, additional weather apps, and outdoor sirens.  Do not rely on just the outdoor warning sirens.

5. Leave your shoes and wallet/keys by the bed.  If a warning is issued overnight then you will be prepared.

6. We recommend people wear helmets during tornado warnings.  In the event of an actual tornado then you will be thankful to have a helmet.

7.  Have a thick blanket in your tornado safe-space.

8.  Prescription medicine.

Create an emergency supply kit. If the storm is likely to cause a lot of damage, it’s important to be prepared for a variety of problems. Things that you should put in a basic supply kit include:

• Flashlights and extra batteries.
• Emergency radio.
• First aid kit
• Whistle, to alert people to your location.
• Personal sanitation products, such as garbage bags, toilet paper, paper towels, wet wipes, and tampons/pads.
• Plastic tarps
• Extra warm clothes.
• Dusk masks.
• Utility shut off tools.

Know your safety plan.   Make sure your kids know the severe weather safety plan.

Have helmets in your safe space.  Any kind of helmet is better than no helmet.

Now is the time to prepare for severe weather.

Have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

 

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Know your families safety plan in the event severe weather develops.

Today’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

New ZOOM radar (with storm chasers)
https://wtalk.co/AVWG7GM7

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Satellite Data

Computers and tablets.  These two satellite links may not work well on cell phones.

Visible Satellite. This one is to be used during daylight only.  Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/a5A0e

IR Satellite. This one shows cloud temperatures. Bright colors represent cold cloud tops.  That could mean thunderstorms.  Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/R2fw1

Water Vapor Satellite.  This one shows mid-level moisture in the atmosphere.   Be sure and hit refresh once you are on the satellite page.  Otherwise, the data will be old.
https://col.st/xFVwx

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Apple users click here

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