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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
Here is the preliminary winter temperature outlook from the long-range meteorology team.
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
October 08, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated stray thunderstorm possible, mainly over the western part of southeast Missouri and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Warm and humid. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None, for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning mainly over southeast Missouri and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. An isolated evening thunderstorm.
Wind: Southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? An evening isolated thunderstorm would cause wet roadways and lightning. Most areas will remain dry. If fog forms, then lower visibility will occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:28 PM
Moonrise: 6:12 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:38 PM
October 09, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds through the day. A couple of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered during the afternoon
Wind: South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some wet roadways. Some lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would check radars
UV Index: 6 to 8 High (if clouds are thicker, then this number will be lowered)
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Most likely, no
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and forecast updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:27 PM
Moonrise: 7:18 AM New Moon
Moonset: 7:12 PM
October 10, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? The risk of severe weather is low. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 2 low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and becoming scattered and ending as the night wears on.
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning early in the night
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 6:25 PM
Moonrise: 8:25 AM New Moon
Moonset: 7:46 PM
October 11, 2018
Thursday forecast: Partly cloudy and cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance of showers east and northeast of LBL in western Kentucky
Wind: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Medium
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:24 PM
Moonrise: 9:29 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:23 PM
October 12, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 moderate
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:12 PM
Moonrise: 10:31 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:02 PM
October 13, 2018
Saturday forecast: Partly sunny. I will be monitoring rain chances. There is the chance a weak system moves into the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph winds becoming southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 5 moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing cloud cover. It appears rain showers will develop Saturday night. Confidence on this is now medium. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing rain coverage through the night.
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunset: 6:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:30 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:44 PM
October 14, 2018
Sunday forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Rain may be widespread.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers early. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset: 6:19 PM
Moonrise: 12:26 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:29 PM
October 15, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly sunny. Cool. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few showers possible. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing and chilly. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:17 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:18 PM
Monitoring the 20th through 23rd for a cold front
Monitoring Halloween (around) for another cold front
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
This is the seven-day rainfall outlook.
Most of this would fall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
I will be monitoring rain chances Friday night into Sunday, as well. Low confidence in that precipitation. Higher confidence in the Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
Click images to enlarge them.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Tuesday morning: Severe weather is not anticipated. An isolated thunderstorm is possible today. Lightning would be the concern.
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening: An approaching cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms will produce heavy downpours and 30 mph wind gusts.
Severe weather, at this time, appears unlikely.
Wednesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain chances this week
- Much cooler air is on the way
- Tracking Michael into the Gulf of Mexico
Some big weather stories this week.
We will have another hot day today. A streak of 90-degree readings may continue for some of us. Widespread 85 to 88-degree readings. It will be humid, as well.
Paducah, Kentucky has had the most 90 degrees days in a row for the Month of October. Quite an amazing way to end our summer season (into early fall).
There is an isolated thunderstorm risk across the western part of southeast Missouri (towards Poplar Bluff, Missouri) and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (east and northeast of LBL).
Lightning would be the main concern today. The vast majority of the region will remain dry.
I did check the high-resolution model guidance this morning. It does not show much.
You can see a small shower or storm over the eastern parts of western Kentucky this evening.
There could be a few small shower and thunderstorm cells on the radar in that area and also over western parts of southeast Missouri. Again, most of my forecast area will remain dry.
Locally, the big story will be a strong cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This front will deliver rain chances to the entire region.
Rain chances will increase over southeast Missouri during the afternoon on Tuesday. Most of the region should remain dry Tuesday morning and for that matter, a good part of the afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will spread eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is when the rain should be at its peak.
Here is how the NAM model guidance depicts the frontal passage. You can see the rain moving east to west across the region.
Time-stamp upper left.
Now, keep in mind, this is just one model’s opinion. There could be activity earlier than this in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some rain and storms may approach as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening. NAM shows it a bit slower.
Flash flooding is not a concern. The risk of severe weather appears to be low. Rainfall totals are likely to average in the 0.30″ to 0.60″ range. Locally higher totals where thunderstorms occur.
The rain will come to an end as we move through Wednesday night. The rain will end west to east.
Most of Thursday should be dry. We will still have some clouds around. It will also be cooler.
Much cooler weather
Monday afternoon temperatures (may actually be a tad higher than this)
Thursday afternoon temperatures
Friday afternoon temperatures
Weekend rain chances
The next weather question will be rain chances late Friday night into Sunday. Model guidance is showing little to no agreement in this time frame.
I have kept rain chances, for the time being, low. This may need adjusting. If you have plans Friday night into Sunday, then monitor updated forecast.
Michael
A hurricane has developed in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest National Hurricane Center’s forecast has this system becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday. Many people are on vacation along the Gulf of Mexico.
Monitor updates from local officials concerning this storm. The greatest risk will likely extend from the coastline of Mississippi and Alabama eastward into the Florida Panhandle and the east coast of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has been slowing the system down since their update 24 hours ago.
This may still need adjusting. Some models show landfall late Wednesday night. Some show landfall Tuesday night/Wednesday.
National Hurricane Center Link to their homepage – click here
National Hurricane Center Link to their homepage – click here
AGAIN SEE THE LATEST AT THE LINK ABOVE
THESE GRAPHICS ARE TIME-SENSITIVE
Long range outlooks show another strong cold front around October 20th through October 22nd. We will watch that one for thunderstorms and colder temperatures. Not sure about frost, just yet. I am monitoring that portion of the forecast.
Bonus VIDEO UPDATES
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
Here is the current track forecast of that hurricane. The end result here would be rain. No concerns about wind.
Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.
Click to enlarge this graphic.
.
The September forecast has been updated.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
.
Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 663
Joining us as our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a hydrologist in the Research Applications Lab at NCAR. He has a background in hydrology, geology and computer science. In graduate school, he found a happy marriage of these in hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and more recently atmospheric modeling. Ethan Gutmann, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Should we re-do hurricane classification?
- Ethan’s hobby of mountain climbing
- U. S. Weather Roundup
- Remnants of Hurricane Rosa entering SW United States
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
.
.
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
