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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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November 6, 2016
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some patchy late night fog. Chilly.
What impact is expected? Reduced visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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November 7, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny. Well above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m. First Quarter.
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Monday Night: Increasing clouds, overnight. A few light showers possible over southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Best chance of that would be over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m. First Quarter.
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November 8, 2016
Election Day ~ VOTE
Tuesday: Quite a few clouds. A few scattered showers possible. Rainfall totals are expected to be light. 0.00″ to 0.15″. Not much. Not enough.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. It appears thunderstorms are not in the cards.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range. Temperatures will be lower because of clouds.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and eventually becoming northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars A few showers possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3 Clouds will keep the UV index lower.
Moonrise will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy during the evening with a few remaining light showers. Decreasing cloudiness overnight. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if showers develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a few scattered evening showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. There could be a few showers dotting radar.
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November 9, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler than recent days. Near normal to below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures, this time of the year, are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 6-7
Moonrise will be at 1:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy frost and fog possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible in this forecast.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North to east at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 10, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. Small risk for light frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 11 2016
Veterans Day
Friday: Partly sunny. Cool. A weak cold front will approach from the north. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 7-14 mph. Winds might be gusty at times. Gusts to 14-18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. I will monitor the frost potential for Friday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 12, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Partly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Otherwise clear sky conditions.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm Monday
- Rain chances?
- Colder air next weekend?
Calm weather continues for the region. It was a beautiful weekend. Temperatures were above normal. Plenty of sun, as well.
A weak weather system will approach our region late Monday night into Tuesday night. A few light showers will be possible towards Poplar Bluff late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Some of the showers might spread over the rest of our region during the day on Tuesday. I have capped rain chances at 30%. I will monitor trends. If that number needs to be increased then I will do that.
Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.15″. Not much. Not nearly enough. Burn bans continues for much of the area.
We should experience clearing by Tuesday night. Somewhat cooler temperatures on Wednesday and Wednesday night. I did mention patchy light frost for Wednesday night. I will monitor guidance. Right now it appears upper 30’s to lower 40’s will be possible by Thursday morning.
A colder blast of air is scheduled to arrive by Friday night into Sunday. We could experience our first widespread frost by Sunday morning. Guidance indicates 34-38 degree temperature readings. It is still a bit early for higher confidence levels in that part of the forecast. Right now, I have medium confidence that we might experience a killing frost on Saturday night.
Significant rain is still not showing up in the charts. The EC model guidance shows another rain event towards next Tuesday or Wednesday. Long way off. Little to no confidence on that part of the forecast. At least not yet.
The longer range outlook is for colder than normal weather as we move into the third and fourth week of November. We have been watching this potential cold for over a month. It is on the long range, thus the confidence level continues to be low on the eventual outcome. Winter will eventually arrive. December 1st is the beginning of meteorological winter.
Let’s look at few anomaly maps. Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58-62 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 38 to 42 degrees.
Let’s take a look at the Monday temperature anomaly map. Red equals above normal temperatures.
Click maps to enlarge
Here is the Tuesday map
Here is the Thursday morning map. Notice we are starting to see some cooler readings.
Here is the Saturday morning map. Cooler temperatures? That appears to be the case.
Model guidance heads back above normal after this cold shot. Keep in mind, long range forecasting is a little bit of skill and a lot of luck. Not sure how December will unfold, yet. I would like to see guidance trends for one more week.
Lot of forecasters are leaning colder than normal. Time will tell.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
Perhaps a few showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Light rainfall totals.
WPC/NOAA has us dry for the next seven days. Again, some light showers are a possibility late Monday night into Tuesday evening. Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to perhaps a few spots picking up 0.10″. Not much, if any at all.
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Struggling with rain chances this coming week. Low confidence on how this unfolds. Perhaps a few showers.
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No major concerns
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
