Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 6th through October 12th

Current risk:  NO

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments:   Tornadoes are not in the forecast.

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

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The weather is about to take a turn.

First off, it will be a bit cooler today.  Clouds will be increasing from south to north.  Showers and thunderstorms are moving south to north, as well.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely today, tonight, and tomorrow.  Tapering northwest to southeast on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over the next few hours over the region.  They will spread north northeast.  Becoming numerous.

There could be a slight lull tonight, followed by another widespread round tomorrow along the cold front.

Rain totals have increased.   Locally heavy rain is likely in some of my forecast counties.

We are now expecting widespread rainfall of 0.50″ to 1.00″ for my western and northwestern counties.

We are expecting widespread rainfall of 1.00″ to 2.00″ or more across my central and eastern counties.  See the graphics below.

Locally higher totals are certainly possible.  The lower totals are likely to be over our far northwest and north counties (Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri, east northeast towards Mt Vernon, Illinois).

Totals will be a bit lower in my far northwestern counties.  See graphics below.

The locally heavy rain could cause flooding of ditches and roadways.  Mainly, the commonly flooded areas.

The WPC/NOAA did place us in a low-end risk of flash flooding today and tomorrow.  The green is a level one risk (lowest). The yellow zone is a level two risk.

Today and tonight

Tomorrow

Here are the latest rainfall forecast numbers.

Notice the sharp gradient over my northwestern counties.

Ohio Valley view

Missouri View

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Severe weather is not anticipated; however, storms are expected to produce lightning and downpours.

Let me show you the latest rain probability maps.  This will display the percentage (%) chance of rain for each 12 hours.

Notice how the chances are a bit higher south and east vs my northwest counties.

Today (7 AM to 7 PM)

Double-click on each graphic to enlarge it.

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Tonight (7 PM to 7 AM)

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Tomorrow (7 AM to 7 PM)

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Tomorrow night (7 PM to 7 AM Wednesday)

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The cold front will push across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This will usher in cooler temperatures.

Highs will be in the 70s later this week.  Overnight lows will dip into the 40s and lower 50s.  It might actually feel like autumn outside!

Dry conditions are likely from Wednesday through Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the ensemble temperature forecast.  This is the mean of 100 models.

As you can see, temperatures will be lower than they have been in recent weeks.

Average highs for this time of the year are around the 72 to 74 degree range.  Average low temperatures are in the lower 50s.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.