Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 6, 2023: Cooler!

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

 

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Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.


48-hour forecast



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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  Lightning will be possible Thursday into Friday.  I will need to work on the exact timing.  A cold front is expected to push across the region.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor updates.  I will keep an eye on Thursday and Friday.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  No.

6.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  No.

7.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast?  No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

 

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Friday, October 6,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Partly sunny.  A period of afternoon clouds accompanied by gusty winds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:30 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  A period of clouds followed by clearing sky conditions.  A sprinkle possible along the front.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 2:38 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Saturday, October 7,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°

Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday, October 8,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 69°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 6:27 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of showers over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:55 AM
Moonset: 3:55 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Monday, October 9,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°

Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~  38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:56 AM
Moonset: 4:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday, October 10,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°

Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:25 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast:  Becoming partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and thunderstorms over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:56 AM
Moonset: 4:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday, October 11,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~  54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:55 AM
Moonset: 5:14 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday, October 12,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 80°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~  58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~  55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 5:36 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

 

 

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Weather Highlights

    1.   Cooler temperatures
    2.   Monitoring frost chances
    3.   Another cold front next week (Thursday/Friday)

 

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

 

.Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone!

Rain fell across the region yesterday.  Many areas picked up 0.40″ to 0.80″.  A few locations received more than an inch of rain!  We needed this rain.  It is very dry.

I know farmers are bringing in their crops, but we still need rain.  Fire season is here.

Here is the drought monitor map.  Double click on it to enlarge it.

You can see drought is spreading across much of the central United States.  The southlands are experiencing extensive drought.  Severe drought.

So, we need rain.

The rain we received is not enough to knock down the drought.  What fell will quickly be absorbed in the dry ground.

There are some counties, over the past two weeks, that have received a bit more rain.  Many areas haven’t.

Dry conditions will be with us today through Wednesday.

The only exception will be a small chance of sprinkles today along an incoming second cold front.  No measurable rain anticipated, at this time.  Occasionally, these systems will pop a surprise band of rain right along the front.  Not expecting that.

Another chance of a light shower will develop over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky Sunday night.  Don’t expect much from that.

It will be chilly over the coming nights.  The coldest air of the season, thus far.

Expect 30s and 40s for overnight lows tonight, tomorrow, and Sunday night.  Perhaps the coldest air will be Saturday night.  Some locations could dip into the middle 30s.

If the wind subsides, then patchy light frost will be possible.

There are frost advisories well to our west.  The first of the season!

The next big cold front arrives Thursday and Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front.  It is too early to know if storms will be severe.  Monitor updates.

Cooler air next Saturday and Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the GEFS ensembles.

They show peak rain chances next Thursday.

This shows the probability of greater than 0.50″ of rain during a 24 hour period.  This would be centered on Thursday.

Temperatures ahead of the front would be warmer than normal.

You can see that here.

Temperatures behind the front will turn colder than normal.

You can see that here.  Blue is cooler than normal next Friday into Sunday.



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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the HRRR Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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