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If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.
October 06, 2018
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds, otherwise mostly clear. An isolated storm possible, especially over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southwest Illinois. Warm. Humid. Well above normal temperatures. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% except for 40% Perryville, MO northward IL ~ 10% for most of southern Illinois. 50% as you move towards Randolph County, Illinois KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to widely scattered (mainly northern portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most, none. Wet roadways and lightning possible over above-mentioned areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 6:31 PM
Moonrise: 3:53 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:27 PM
October 07, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Patchy morning fog. Most areas will remain dry through the day. A chance of isolated thunderstorms over southeast Missouri. Chances will decrease as you move across the rest of the region. I am monitoring the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky Sunday afternoon for an isolated thunderstorm, as well. Check radars if you have concerns.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% (highest chances from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, towards Perryville, Missouri IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning in a few locations (see above)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild temperatures. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:30 PM
Moonrise: 5:03 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:04 PM
October 08, 2018
Monday forecast:
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated stray thunderstorm possible, mainly over the western part of southeast Missouri and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Warm and humid. Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None, for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? An evening isolated thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry. If fog forms, then lower visibility will occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:28 PM
Moonrise: 6:12 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:38 PM
October 09, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds through the day. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, especially during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, especially over southeast Missouri.
Wind: South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would check radars
UV Index: 6 to 8 High (if clouds are thicker, then this number will be lowered)
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Most likely, no
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and forecast updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:27 PM
Moonrise: 7:18 AM New Moon
Moonset: 7:12 PM
October 10, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Wind: South at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Small risk of severe weather.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2 to 4 low
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Rain ending west to east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and becoming scattered and ending as the night wears on.
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 6:25 PM
Moonrise: 8:25 AM New Moon
Moonset: 7:46 PM
October 11, 2018
Thursday forecast: Partly cloudy and cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Medium
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:24 PM
Moonrise: 9:29 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:23 PM
October 12, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly to partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 moderate
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:12 PM
Moonrise: 10:31 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:02 PM
October 13, 2018
Saturday forecast: Partly sunny. I will be monitoring rain chances. There is the chance a weak system moves into the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 5 moderate
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Again, I will be monitoring rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset: 6:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:30 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:44 PM
October 14, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny. I will be monitoring rain chances. There is the chance a weak system moves into the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index:
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset: 6:19 PM
Moonrise: 12:26 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:29 PM
Learmore about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
This first image is today through next Saturday night.
Most of this would fall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night. We will need to monitor for locally heavy rain.
Models are not agreement on rain totals. There is potential for higher totals than are shown on this map.
Here is the 72-hour rainfall totals forecast
Again, our greatest rain chances will occur Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Models are not agreement on rain totals. There is potential for higher totals than are shown on this map.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday through Wednesday night: A cold front will approach the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and storms will form along the front. I will be monitoring for the potential of a few intense thunderstorms. At this time, the overall severe weather risk appears marginal. Monitor updates.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Hot weather to continue. Humid, as well.
- A cold front pushes into the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night with increasing rain chances
- Much cooler as we push into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
- Frost forecast
A quick weekend update.
Hot weather will continue into at least Monday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range from 86 to 92 degrees. WELL above the seasonal norms.
Thunderstorm chances will be kept on the low side. The only exception will be across northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southwest Illinois. That would include areas from Perryville, Missouri, towards Mt Vernon, Illinois. Chances will be a bit higher there.
See the interactive city-view radars if you have concerns.
It will continue to be muggy Sunday into Wednesday with dew points well into the upper 60’s to lower 70’s Unseasonably high for October. Dew points are what control the humid feeling when you walk outside.
The good news (for those looking for fall weather) is that a strong cold front will push through the region Wednesday and Thursday. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
We may see an increase in thunderstorm activity over southeast Missouri as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will increase elsewhere Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A few of the thunderstorms could be on the strong side. Locally heavy rain is possible. There remain questions about the movement of tropical moisture from the southwest United States and from the Gulf of Mexico.
Model guidance is all over the place with rain totals Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show anywhere from 0.25″ to 6.00″. Needless to say, I am not all that confident in the model guidance,
Here is the GFS rainfall totals forecast
Here is the Canadian rainfall totals forecast
There will be high PWAT values Tuesday night and Wednesday. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the whole atmospheric column. The higher the PWAT values the greater the risk of heavy rain.
Here is the PWAT animation. This covers Tuesday into Thursday. See how quickly the PWAT values drop behind the front? Much drier air behind the cold front.
Check out the temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday and Monday. I will then show you the Thursday and Friday anomalies. Normal high temperatures are around 74 degrees.
Sunday
Monday
Thursday
Friday
Frost next weekend?
This remains a bit of a wild card. Certainly, frost will be possible across portions of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys, but it may be north of our region.
Monitor updates.
Let me show you some model guidance.
The GFS has a cold bias. I don’t normally trust it past day five (when it comes to temperatures).
Here is the GFS
Saturday morning
Here are the EC Saturday morning low-temperature forecast numbers
Here are the Sunday morning numbers (next Sunday)
EC guidance is chilly.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 663
Joining us as our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a hydrologist in the Research Applications Lab at NCAR. He has a background in hydrology, geology and computer science. In graduate school, he found a happy marriage of these in hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and more recently atmospheric modeling. Ethan Gutmann, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Should we re-do hurricane classification?
- Ethan’s hobby of mountain climbing
- U. S. Weather Roundup
- Remnants of Hurricane Rosa entering SW United States
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
.
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
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