We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
..
November 5, 2016
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Reduced visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 5:52 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
.
.
November 6, 2016
Sunday: Patchy morning fog will mix out. Mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures continue. Mild for November.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast winds becoming east and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some patchy late night fog.
What impact is expected? Reduced visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
.
.
November 7, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny. Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m. First Quarter.
.
Monday Night: Increasing clouds, overnight. Small chance for showers towards Poplar Bluff.
What impact is expected? Will monitor for some wet roadways over parts of southeast Missouri (further west the better chance for a light shower)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
.
November 8, 2016
Tuesday: Quite a few clouds. A few scattered showers possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars A few showers possible.
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 1-4
Moonrise will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A few evening showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if showers develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a few scattered evening showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
.
November 9, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 1:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy light frost.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North to east at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 10, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast to southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Thursday Night: A few passing clouds. Cool.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 11 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Cold. Perhaps frost.
What impact is expected? Frost? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday, November 13, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Cool
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast and east at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm weather Sunday
- Above normal temperatures will continue
- No frost or freeze in the forecast
- A few isolated showers this week?
- Frost next weekend?
A calm weekend is underway. Temperatures on Saturday morning were chilly. A few locations dipped into the upper 30’s. I didn’t see any reports of frost, but it would not surprise me if there was a hint of frost in some areas.
No real change in the weather for Sunday. Morning lows will mostly be in the 40’s. Afternoon highs will approach 70 degrees. Both of these numbers are above normal. Par for the course. It seems true fall weather is missing in action.
Above normal temperatures will likely continue into the upcoming weekend.
A weak weather system will approach our region on Monday. I can’t completely rule out a shower over our western counties in southeast Missouri. The Poplar Bluff area. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue.
Another system approaches our region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I included a 30% for showers during both time periods. Significant rain is not in the charts through the upcoming weekend.
There is one model package that continues shower chances into Thursday and Friday. For now, I discounted the idea. I will monitor trends for changes.
Some indications that this coming weekend (November 12th and 13th) might deliver a better chance for widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends.
I continue to monitor the third and fourth week of November for a pattern shift. Low confidence. It seems we just can’t shake our drought and our above normal temperatures. Hopefully we don’t enter winter with drought conditions.
Here is what the GFS is showing for rainfall totals through November 21st. Not much rain in our region (if this model is correct)
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
No rain in our forecast through Monday. A small chance for showers near Poplar Bluff on Monday. Small shower chances elsewhere on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Here is the NOAA rainfall forecast through Friday. Does not look good for our region. Mostly dry. We need rain.
.
Sunday morning low temperatures
.
.
Sunday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
.
.
.
.
.
..
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Saturday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
Struggling with rain chances this coming week. Low confidence on how this unfolds. Perhaps a few showers.
.
No major concerns
.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
