Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Thursday, October 5,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Thursday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 6:32 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for lingering showers. A thunderstorm will be possible.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:57 PM
Moonset: 1:47 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday, October 6,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Friday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:30 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 2:38 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Saturday, October 7,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday, October 8,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 6:27 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:55 AM
Moonset: 3:55 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Monday, October 9,  2023
Confidence in the forecast?  High Confidence  
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  70° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: West 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  6. High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~  43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:56 AM
Moonset: 4:25 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Widespread rain pushed into the region last night.  More is on the way for today.

Radar at 7 AM showed an extensive shield of precipitation moving northeast through the region.

Thankfully, we are not having to deal with any severe thunderstorm activity.  That has remained well to our south and southwest

Showers will continue through this afternoon.

Tonight, the rain will taper west to east as a strong cold front advances across the region.  This will usher in the coolest air since April.

Highs Friday into Sunday will remain in the 60s and 70s.  Overnight lows Saturday night will likely dip into the 30s and lower 40s.   I can’t rule out light patchy frost if the wind subsides.

Dry weather will be the general rule Friday through Tuesday.

I am watching a warm up towards the middle of next week.  Data is mixed on whether or not we pop back into the 80s.  Briefly.  Either way, autumn seems to be settling in.

Check out the freeze watches in light blue.  Well to our northwest.   We don’t have to worry about a freeze.  Not yet, at least.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

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Tornado Probability Outlook

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Large Hail Probability Outlook

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High wind Probability Outlook

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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