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Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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November 4, 2016
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Cooler temperatures. Small chance for light frost.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 5:53 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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November 5, 2016
Saturday: Patchy morning fog will mix out. Mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:24 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:52 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 12:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:39 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 7, 2016
Sunday: Patchy morning fog will mix out. Mostly sunny. Above normal temperatures continue. Mild for November.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:51 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 11:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:35 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 43-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northeast and east at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 8, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny. Above normal temperatures will continue.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:50 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:35 p.m. First Quarter.
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Monday Night: A few clouds. Small chance for showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if showers develop.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Uncertain. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 9, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers?
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:27 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 1:17 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 10, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Showers possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Showers possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm Sunday
- Above normal temps
- What about rain?
- Colder air towards third/fourth week of November?
Another beautiful autumn weekend. Temperatures have been a little bit cooler over the past 24 hours. That is because a cold front moved through the area.
Temperatures remain above normal (even though they have cooled a bit).
Patchy fog will be a possibility late Friday night and again on Saturday night. Mainly in areas that received a little rain on Thursday. Many areas missed out on measurable rainfall. We just can’t win. We need rain.
There will be a small risk for frost on Saturday morning. Dew points will drop into the upper 30’s over portions of the area. Temperatures will do the same. Perhaps some of the cold favored areas could have just a hint of frost.
Dew point map for Saturday morning. Click to enlarge.
Dry weather will continue into Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
The guidance diverges for Monday night through Thursday night. Some of the guidance is painting showers for the region. Other guidance is bone dry. I don’t have a lot of confidence on the eventual outcome. I would like to see some more agreement in the guidance before pushing rain chances too high. Monitor updates.
Severe weather is unlikely through this coming Friday. Unusual to have so much warm air and no severe storms (especially this time of the year).
Kentucky is under a statewide emergency because of wildfires.
Details – click here
Here is the drought monitor map for Kentucky. Moderate drought covers much of the state. Tennessee, as well.
Here is the drought monitor map for the rest of the area
Temperatures continue well above normal. This is the latest month to date temperature anomalies. Granted, it is only November 4th. These are still amazing numbers.
Sixteen day temperature outlook from the GFS guidance. Won’t be exact and lower confidence as you move further out.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
No rain in our forecast through Monday. I am monitoring Monday night onward for at least a chance for showers. Low confidence. I am hoping the guidance will come into better agreement as we move forward. Monitor updated forecasts.
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Struggling with rain chances this coming week. Low confidence on how this unfolds. Perhaps a few showers.
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No major concerns
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
