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WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
October 04, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A wide range of weather across the region today. Clouds will dominate over the northern half and there will be quite a bit of sun elsewhere. Temperatures will vary based on clouds and rain. The temperature spread will be from the lower 70’s to upper 80’s. Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially along and north of a line from Cape Girardeau, Missouri, to Harrisburg, Illinois. South of that line there could be a few showers and thunderstorms, as well. It will be warm and humid where the sun dominates.
Temperatures: MO ~ 73 to 76 Farmington to Mt Vernon and then 84 to 88 as you move further south. Warmer as you move further away from the frontal boundary IL ~ 73 to 76 along and north of a line from Farmington, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois. 83 to 86 as you move further south towards Marion, Illinois, and then towards the Ohio River. This will be because of clouds and precipitation. KY ~ 86 to 88 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% (mainly north of a line from Cape Girardeau County, MO towards Pope County, IL) IL ~ 40% to 50% except southern seven counties. The rain chances there will be 30% KY ~ 20% to 30% over most of western Kentucky. Chances will be higher as you move towards Henderson and Owensboro, Kentucky. TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over our northern counties. Tapering to isolated as you move into the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts likely
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 High
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A few showers or thunderstorms possible (mainly across our northern counties). Greatest chance along I-64 with increasing chances north of there. Rain chances will be highest before 9 PM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 64 northern counties and 66 to 70 southern counties IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40% northern counties decreasing to 10% over the Bootheel IL ~ 60% near the I-64 corridor diminishing to 20% near the Ohio River KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous near I-64 decreasing to none to isolated over the Bootheel into west KY/west TN
Wind: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Spotty wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 6:34 PM
Moonrise: 1:35 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:04 PM
October 05, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Near record high temperatures. A chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Chances are greater as you move north in the region (towards Perryville, MO to Mt Vernon, IL and then east/northeast of there. Lesser chances south of that line.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning over the northern portions of southern Illinois
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Near record high low temperatures. Any Friday afternoon showers and thunderstorms should have come to an end.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Wind: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Sunset: 6:33 PM
Moonrise: 4:48 PM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:43 AM
October 06, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially western and northern counties from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, towards Mt Vernon, Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered )mainly over the western portions of southeast Missouri and the northern portions of southern Illinois)
Wind: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Greater chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Most of the area may remain dry if the front doesn’t push its way into the area.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and radars. There could be some precipitation. This would mainly be over southeast Missouri and southwest and northern portions of southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere.
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm over western portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Most of the area will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to widely scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 6:31 PM
Moonrise: 3:53 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:27 PM
October 07, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. A scattered shower or thunderstorm possible. Clouds will help determine high temperatures. Fewer clouds and we will be warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southeast winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways possible. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8 High
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog could lower visibility. Isolated showers would mean wet roadways and possibly some lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:30 PM
Moonrise: 5:03 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:04 PM
October 08, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8 High
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. If fog forms, then lower visibility will occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:28 PM
Moonrise: 6:12 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:38 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
This first image is the 48-hour rainfall totals. This will capture the Thursday/Thursday night activity. Portions of the region may receive no measurable rain.
Greatest chances of measurable rain will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and then into northwest Kentucky towards Owensboro. Chances decrease the further south you travel.
Click images to enlarge them.
I will keep an eye on rain chances this weekend. I would not change any plans, yet. I would monitor update. A few showers and storms are possible.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night. The greatest risk of storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Chances decrease the further south you travel. Lightning is the main concern.
I will be monitoring isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances into Monday. Signals for organized thunderstorm activity are low. Monitor updates. Severe weather appears unlikely.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- New server today
- Rain chances today (for some)
- Hot and humid weather into the weekend
Sorry, I am running behind today. Preston and his crew installed a new server last night. That is good news. Hopefully, that will be able to handle our winter load! Normally, from December through February, we see an increase in traffic on the websites.
We are also working on some additional new products and an app update. Preston hopes to have all of that ready soon.
Today and Tonight
A cold front is positioned just to our north today. This front will slowly sag southward. It won’t make it through the whole region. It will stall out this evening and then move back northward as a warm front tonight and Friday.
Here is the front (9 AM)
Click to enlarge the image (hard to see state lines with the clouds)
The best chance of rain today will be from Bollinger County, Missouri into Cape Girardeau County, Missouri into Union, Johnson, and Pope Counties in southern Illinois and then northeast to Owensboro. Along and north of that line is where scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.
Rain chances will be lower south and southeast of the blue line.
Clouds will also be thicker in those locations and that will help keep temperatures down.
Areas to the south of that line will experience a bit more sun and perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms.
Friday into Sunday
The front will remain to our north over the coming days. Western portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois will stand the greatest chance of a few showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
Areas east and southeast of there will have 20% to 30% rain chances. That means there will probably be some precipitation on radar from time to time. The greatest chance will be Sunday.
Very heavy rain is anticipated across areas from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, portions of Missouri, Wisconsin, and portions of Illinois. I would not be surprised to hear about some 5 to 10-inch amounts. Thankfully, that will avoid our local region. We don’t need that much rain.
Temperatures today through Sunday (outside of cloud areas) will range from 84 to 88 degrees. A few 90’s can’t be ruled out. High dew points will make it feel humid.
Areas, where clouds are thicker, may remain in the 70’s. This is especially true today.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday through Sunday, then I would not change them. I would simply monitor weather updates and radars.
Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.
Click to enlarge this graphic.
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The September forecast has been updated.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 663
Joining us as our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a hydrologist in the Research Applications Lab at NCAR. He has a background in hydrology, geology and computer science. In graduate school, he found a happy marriage of these in hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and more recently atmospheric modeling. Ethan Gutmann, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Should we re-do hurricane classification?
- Ethan’s hobby of mountain climbing
- U. S. Weather Roundup
- Remnants of Hurricane Rosa entering SW United States
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
