October 31, 2024: Rain!

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely today. I am monitoring Saturday through Wednesday for additional chances.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. There is a low risk of severe weather today. Instability is lacking. I don’t expect much, even though the Storm Prediction Center has the region outlined for severe. I will keep an eye on next Tuesday/Tuesday night.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Thursday: 2. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A line of showers and thunderstorms will push into Southeast Missouri during the pre-dawn hours and then progress through the Quad State during the day. A few embedded storms can be strong to severe. A cold front moves through during the day, with showers and storms lingering latest in Western Kentucky. Gusty south- southwesterly winds continue today ahead of the front with northerly winds behind the front. Cooler and drier conditions are expected Friday, with warming and daily rain chances for the weekend through early next week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook

Thursday weather analysis

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Coverage will be higher the first half of the day. Coverage will decrease west to east late morning and afternoon. Some areas will be dry by evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts. A small risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecasts.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers. Rain will be ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Tapering as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 6:31 AM
Moonset: 5:24 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: North wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:30 AM
Moonset: 5:50 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers over mainly the Missouri Bootheel.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:21 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:33 AM
Moonset: 6:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast wind at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:35 AM
Moonset: 5:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: South wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Widespread rain today. A few thunderstorms.
2. A few of today’s storms could produce gusty winds and lightning.
3. Rain tapers west to east later this morning into the afternoon hours.
4. Rain may linger into the evening over mainly Kentucky and Tennessee.
5. Watching additional shower chances this weekend into next week.
6. Briefly cooler Friday, then another warming trend. Cooler towards the middle of next week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Happy Halloween!

A wet day ahead of us. Morning radar shows widespread showers and thunderstorms moving across the region.

Here was the 5:30 AM radar animation.

The showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward through the morning hours.

Rain will taper off this afternoon over most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Showers and storms may linger a bit longer over extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Once the main band moves through the region, a second band may form during the mid to late afternoon hours. This will be a lighter band of showers and drizzle. That could interfere with some Halloween activities.

I would not cancel plans, but I would monitor the radars. You may need to bring an umbrella and rain jacket to Halloween activities.

Here is the Hrrr model. Notice that second band that forms during the late afternoon/evening hours.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

The time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM.

It will be mild today. Cooler tonight. Breezy, at times.

Friday will be cooler with seasonal temperatures.

The Saturday through Wednesday forecast is unsettled. Confidence in the timing, placement, and coverage of shower and thunderstorms remains lower than normal.

The main concern is the placement of a boundary in or near our region. If the boundary is a bit farther west, then precipitation chances will be higher to our west. If the boundary is draped over our region, then we will have to deal with showers and thunderstorms.

For now, I broad-brushed a 30% to 40% chance of precipitation later this weekend into early next week. I peaked chances on Tuesday along a cold front.

It is a bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern with the Tuesday cold front. I am closely monitoring it.

It is not unusual to have severe weather during the Month of November. Monitor updates.

Let me show you the current rain probabilities and break it down.

Notice how precipitation chances are higher over the western half of our region Saturday through Monday. Then, it slowly spreads east southeast as we move closer to Monday night into Tuesdays night.

Again, keep in mind, adjustments are likely depending on the placement of the boundary.

Today

Tonight

Friday

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

Sunday night

Monday

Monday night

Tuesday

Tuesday night

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.