Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Forecast Discussion.  Monitoring thunderstorm chances.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Chances will be higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and then tapering chances into Kentucky.  A couple of the storms could be intense over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  The concern would be strong and gusty winds and a short-lived tornado.  The risk, overall, is low.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous northwest.  Widely scattered southeast.
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~  63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A couple of the storms could be intense over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  The concern would be strong and gusty winds and a short-lived tornado.  The risk, overall, is low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset:  5:01 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Coverage will be higher the first half of the day.  Coverage will decrease west to east late morning and afternoon.  Some areas will be dry by evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A few storms could produce strong wind gusts.  A small risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecasts.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers.  Rain will be ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early.  Tapering as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~  48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 6:31 AM
Moonset:  5:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:  North wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index:  4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~  44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
Moonrise: 7:30 AM
Moonset:  5:50 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Good day, everyone.  I hope you are having a nice week.  The weather has felt more like summer than October!  Well above average temperatures.

This mornings temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages!

Double click the image to enlarge.  Here is a graphic showing this morning’s temperature anomalies.

Check out the 7 am temperatures.  70s all the way to Canada!  That is crazy mild for late October!  They should be experiencing cold and snow.  Not this year.

Today will be very warm.  Temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s over most of the region.  Some locations could break their record highs.

It will be breezy  again today.  Plenty of leaves blowing around.   Southerly winds will gust between 15 and 30 mph.   Those winds will continue into tonight.

The gusty winds will cause some issues for those burning leaves or fields.  Use care, as always.  Relative humidity levels will be increasing over the coming days.  That will at least help keep the fire risk a tad lower.

The good news is that rain is on the way!

A band of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region late tonight into Thursday evening.

This will be the first front to bring substantial widespread rain chances to the region since late September!

The Storm Prediction Center did add a low level one risk of severe weather to western portions of southeast Missouri and a small portion of southwest Illinois late tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Overall, the risk appears limited, at best.  Instability is lacking.

Here is that graphic.  That light green is general thunderstorms (lightning).  The dark green is the level one risk.  This is for late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

There is some wind shear, but CAPE values will be very low.  The concern would be damaging wind or a short lived tornado.  I am not expecting much, but I will keep an eye on it.

The same goes for tomorrow.  The Storm Prediction Center outlined our region for a low level one risk of severe weather.  I just don’t see much in the way of severe weather ingredients.  There is very little in the way of instability.  There is a bit of wind shear.  The ingredients for organized severe weather is lacking.

As always, I will keep an eye on it and will send out app messages if necessary.

A widespread 0.4″ to 0.80″ of rain is anticipated.  Pockets of higher totals are possible.  This will be the most rain since Hurricane Helene moved across our region in late September.

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

Rain may disrupt some Halloween festivities on Thursday.  Activities between 7 AM and 3 PM may have to move indoors.

Current forecasts indicate a 70% to 100% chance of rain from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with showers and storms tapering off from west to east by late afternoon and evening.

With any luck, the rain will clear out before the evening. I’m sure trick-or-treaters will be eagerly tracking the radars.  It’s shaping up to be a race against time with rain tapering west to east.

Schools planning outdoor activities on Thursday morning and afternoon should prepare for potential showers and thunderstorms.

Much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should be dry by the evening hours.  Rain showers will likely continue over our southeastern counties into the evening hours.

Here is the latest Hrrr model.

This is what radar might look like at 7 AM Thursday

1 PM Thursday

6 PM Thursday

That blue is light rain and drizzle.  It may linger into the evening hours over portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.

Here is the future-cast radars from the NAM and NAM 3K models.  Time stamp can be found in the upper left side of the animation.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=7 PM.  06z=1 AM.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.

You can see how the rain moves across the region from west to  east.

NAM 3K model.  Double click to enlarge animations.

Here are the official NWS rainfall probabilities.

7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday

7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

A series of weather disturbances will move across the Central United States Friday into next week.  This should bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to our region.  There is quite a bit of disagreement on the timing and coverage.

Quite a bit of data shows very heavy rain totals just a bit to our west.  I will be monitoring to see if that shifts a bit eastward, with time.  Either way, we will have at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this weekend into next week.  On and off chances.   Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.

Here is the EC model.  It does show several chances  of rain.

This is the future-cast radar from the EC model.  What radar might look like.  Again, confidence in the details of placement and coverage is currently low.  Confidence in the details will increase over the next couple of days.

Saturday night/Sunday morning

Sunday evening

Monday morning

Tuesday morning

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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