Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Afternoon update

October 30, 2018:

The heaviest rain will occur WED night into THU morning.

Watch this Hrrr future-cast radar animation. Watch the slug moving into the region from the SW late tomorrow.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left part of the animation.

That slug of moisture will be the beginning of the heavier rain.

Click to enlarge

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October 30, 2018
Tuesday forecast:  Mostly sunny. A few clouds.  Clouds may increase late in the day.  Windy.  Warm.  Temperatures could approach 80 degrees in some locations.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 78      IL ~ 75 to 78        KY ~ 75 to 78    TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None anticipated
Wind: South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8 High
Sunrise: 7:18 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Rain developing late tonight from NW to SE.  A thunderstorm possible.  Much of the region will remain dry for most of the night.  The rain chances will hold off until the early AM hours with the greatest coverage over Missouri and Illinois.  Breezy.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage ahead and behind a cold front.
Frost Risk: No
Wind: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning possible.  Precipitation chances will occur late tonight (early AM hours).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:59 PM
Moonrise:  10:24  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:17 PM

October 31, 2018
A trick instead of a treat.  Rain likely.
Wednesday forecast:  Rain.  Rain moderate at times.  Mild ahead of the front and turning colder behind the front.
Temperatures:  MO ~ falling into the middle and upper 50’s      IL ~ Falling into the upper 50’s over northern parts of southern Illinois and highs in the middle 60’s elsewhere before falling late morning into the afternoon hours        KY ~ 64 to  68  with falling temperatures by late morning and afternoon     TN ~ 64 to 68 with falling temperatures during the afternoon
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100%     IL ~ 100%     KY ~ 100%     TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Wind:  South at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds will shift behind the cold front and become west and northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning possible.  Wet roadways.  Some low land flooding possible (fields and ditches)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes, have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 2  Low
Sunrise: 7:19 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain.  Rain moderate to heavy, at times.  Northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois may end up drier than the rest of the area.  Keep this in mind.  Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~  44 to 48     KY ~ 45 to 48       TN ~ 46 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% north and 80%  elsewhere    IL ~ 40% north and 80% elsewhere     KY ~ 100%     TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous to widespread
Frost Risk: None
Wind:  North at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Low land flooding possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset: 5:58 PM
Moonrise:  11:59  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  2:03 PM

November 1, 2018
Thursday forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers likely.  Windy and cooler.  Greatest rain coverage will be during the morning hours with decreasing coverage through the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 54      IL ~ 52 to  54        KY ~ 54 to  56      TN ~ 54 to  56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 70%     TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: North at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Some low land flooding possible.  Monitor river crest forecasts over the coming days, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 7:20 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy. A shower possible.  Rain should be ending.  Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 40     IL ~  36 to 40     KY ~ 38 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Frost Risk: Most likely no
Wind:  Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset: 5:57 PM
Moonrise:  12:33  PM Last Quarter
Moonset:  2:47 PM

November 2, 2018
Friday forecast:  Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to  58        KY ~ 56 to  60      TN ~ 58 to  62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates as rain is possible
UV Index:  4 to 5  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:21 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Chilly.  A shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~  35 to 40     KY ~ 36 to 42       TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Frost Risk:  No
Wind:  Winds becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 5:56 PM
Moonrise:  1:41 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:26 PM

November 3, 2018
Saturday forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cool temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~54 to 58       KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to5  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:22 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 45     IL ~  42 to 45     KY ~ 44 to 46       TN ~ 44 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: Possible
Wind:  Becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 5:55 PM
Moonrise:  2:49  PM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:03 PM

November 4, 2018
Sunday forecast:  Mostly cloudy with showers possible.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64        KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 2 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 6:23 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A shower again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~  44 to 48     KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Frost Risk:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 4:54 PM
Moonrise:  2:56  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  3:37 PM

November 5, 2018
Monday forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60      IL ~ 55 to 60         KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 2 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~  44 to 48     KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:53 PM
Moonrise:  4:02  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  4:09 PM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through next Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.   Moderate to heavy rain is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A wet Halloween.

 

 

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1.  Well above normal temperatures today.  A spring-like day for the region.
2.  Rain chances increase tonight through Thursday morning
3.  Locally heavy rain likely
4.  Monitoring rain chances over the coming seven day period, as well
5.  River flooding risk is increasing.

Subscribers, we started talking about this Halloween event more than thirty days ago!  The teleconnections indicated a big system was possible.  Appears they were correct.

Today’s forecast 

A warm day is on tap for our region.  Highs today will range from 75 to 80 degrees across most of the region.

Brisk southerly winds will gust in the 15 to 30 mph range.  It will feel more like spring than autumn.

This is, of course, a signal of changing weather conditions.

We should remain dry through the afternoon hours.

Today’s high temperatures

The GFS model data shows widespread 70’s in the region.

I am forecasting temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 70’s.  Three cheers for a warm day.

With the warm temperatures will come the increasing southerly winds.  This will be caused by an increasingly tight barometric pressure gradient.  Barometric pressure means your home barometer.  A tight gradient typically means windy conditions.

Today is the pick day of the next six days.  Enjoy it!

Rain chances increasing tonight into Thursday.

A cold front will push into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The front will approach from the northwest and move southeast.

PWAT values will peak on Wednesday in the 1.3 to 1.6″ rain (locally higher).  These are WELL above normal PWAT values (for this time of the year).

These high PWAT values will be key to our locally heavy rain forecast.

Here is the PWAT value animation.  Notice the dark blue and purple colors.  Those are well above normal PWAT numbers.  It hovers near the Ohio River Wednesday and Wednesday night.  That is when the heaviest rains will occur.

This is a juicy system with plenty of moisture to work with.

I am forecasting a widespread one to two-inch rain event with pockets of greater than three inches.  The highest risk of greater than three inches will be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

I can’t rule out some low land flooding, ditches flooding, and a few areas with water over roadways.  River flooding could be an issue over the coming weeks.

The rain will occur over a 48 hour time period.  Thus, flash flooding seems unlikely.  Monitor any watches and warnings that may have to be issued.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.  This is what the NAM model believes radar will look like by Tuesday night into Thursday.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner of the animation.

Click to enlarge.

Although the band of rain appears broken, it will increase in aerial coverage with time.  This is a widespread rain event for our region.

Here is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast.  Each model is a bit different.  As always, don’t take the specifics from this graphic.  Take the general idea from it.

That means to notice where the heaviest rain totals are located.  Whether you receive that exact amount is questionable.

The NAM does agree with my forecast.  The heaviest rain totals will occur east of the Mississippi River.

Here is the GFS rainfall totals forecast map.   There are many models.  You can see the heaviest rain totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Respectable totals, elsewhere.

GFS totals

EC model rain totals (another model)

Of all of the model guidance, the EC is showing the heaviest totals.

It does agree with my placement of the heaviest rain totals.

The WPC has outlined our region in a slight risk of excessive rainfall during this event (mainly Wednesday).

That simply means that they believe there is a risk of flash flooding.

As always, those areas that do have flooding during prolonged rain events could have some issues.

The National Weather Service has also issued a flash flood watch for portions of the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Here is that watch outline.

The good news is that severe weather is unlikely in our local area.  Severe storms are forecast for areas further south of us.

Here is the surface based CAPE index forecast.  Some surface based CAPE develops in the Bootheel and western Tennessee.  Not much.

CAPE is used to measure how unstable the atmosphere is.  How much energy, if you will, is available for storms to tap into.

These are very low numbers, thus I am not forecasting severe thunderstorms locally.

The most unstable CAPE index does show small numbers in our local area.  That would mean that lightning will be possible.

Dew points will be in the 60’s over some of our counties by Wednesday.  That is a lot of moisture for late October.

Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  It controls how sticky it feels outside.

Notice how temperatures will fall behind the cold front Wednesday morning into Wednesday night.

1 AM Wednesday temperatures.  Well above normal temperatures for late October.  Overnight lows will only dip into the 60’s!

How many degrees above normal is this?

Here are the Wednesday afternoon temperatures.  Temperatures will peak during Wednesday morning and then fall steadily through the day.

How many degrees below normal will temperatures be Wednesday afternoon?

Several.  Definitely a Halloween cold front in there.

Here is the wind forecast (direction included)

Click to enlarge

Friday into Sunday

I am watching two more cold fronts.  One arrives by Friday and the other by Sunday.  Both could have rain showers accompanying their passage.

At this time, Saturday appears to be the pick day of the weekend.  Dry conditions are forecast.  Medium confidence in that part of the forecast.

No bitterly cold air in the charts.

Storm dates to monitor

November 5th through the 8th

November 10th through the 12th

November 19th through the 22nd

These are dates where precipitation will be possible.

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Fall Outlook!

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

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Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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