Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 3, 2025: Another warm day. Cooler next week.

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Don’t forget, this week is Severe Weather Preparedness Week.  We often have severe weather during October and November.

Have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather warnings.

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 3rd through October 9th

Current riskNO

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments:   Tornadoes are not in the forecast.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  POSSIBLE.  An isolated chance this morning over Kentucky (mainly from Owensboro south to Hopkinsville).  Scattered lightning is possible on Monday and Tuesday.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  NO.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  UNLIKELY.  Isolated locations could hit the 90 mark today.  Most areas will remain in the eighties.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees?  NO.    

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.   

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.   

9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees?  NO.

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Here is the short-range concern meter.

No significant concerns.

Isolated lightning is possible this morning over western Kentucky, mainly from Owensboro south to Hopkinsville.

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Here is the extended concern meter.  This takes us through next Thursday.

I did place us in grey next week.  That is for lightning.  Mainly on Monday and Tuesday.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon


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Forecast discussion

  •   Another warm day.  Warm this weekend.
  •   A chance of showers and thunderstorms next week.  Mainly on Monday and Tuesday.
  •   Cooler temperatures next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

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Have a great weekend.

We do have a couple of showers in the region this morning.  Even a rumble of thunder in northwest Kentucky.

You can see that on this 5 AM radar image.  These were moving southward at 25 mph.

With time, these will dissipate.

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Today will deliver a mix of sun and clouds.   I can’t rule out a sprinkle where clouds are a bit thicker.

Otherwise, once this morning’s activity in Kentucky weakens, it should be a mostly dry day for the region.

It will be hot again.  Especially away from clouds.  Highs will range from 85 to 90 away from clouds and 83 to 86 where clouds are thicker.

We did have a few showers and thunderstorms yesterday.  A weak disturbance moved across the region.

Looking ahead.

Temperatures will remain warm into Monday.  Well above average temperatures today and above average temperatures tomorrow through Monday.

It will turn cooler by next Tuesday and Wednesday (behind a cold front).

Average highs for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.  Average lows are around 53 degrees.

I am monitoring Sunday night into Tuesday night for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Wednesday is trending dry.

As mentioned above, a cold front is expected to move into the region next Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will bring cooler air.  See the temperature graphics below.

Here is the temperature anomaly graphic for the middle of next week.  Blue indicates below-average temperatures.

Yesterday’s graphic was more impressive.  It had a larger area of cooler air.

The models keep swinging back and forth.  The theme remains.  It will be somewhat cooler towards the middle of next week.

Guidance has about a +5 to -5 degree difference in highs and lows.  That does raise some questions as to just how cool it will be.

For now, I have held steady with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

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I’m not sure how long the cool air will last, but at least for a few days.

Some data shows a second cold front around October 11th to 14th.

Here is what the ensembles are showing for high and low temperatures.

Long-range EC ensembles temperatures.  We do eventually drop into the seventies.  That will be closer to seasonal averages.

Perhaps even a few days of below-average temperatures!

I chose Marion, Illinois, as a central location for the region.

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Here is the GEFS model.  The two models are similar.  Perhaps it will feel a bit more like autumn!

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model for next week

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model for next week

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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