October 29, 2024. Near record warmth, yet again.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely Wednesday night into Thursday evening. I will monitor Sunday and Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday : 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 2. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Near-record warm temperatures, gusty SW transport winds of 20-30 kts, and minimum RH values of 30-40% will bring an elevated risk of uncontrolled fire spread today. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday, but RH values will be roughly 5-10% higher. Widespread wetting rains are forecast Thursday, with most areas seeing about 0.50-1.0″ by Friday morning.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Video Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few high clouds. Warmer. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 4:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and then tapering chances into Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous northwest. Widely scattered southeast.
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset: 5:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Coverage will be higher the first half of the day. Coverage will decrease west to east late morning and afternoon. Some areas will be dry by evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecasts.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of mainly evening showers. Rain will be ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Tapering as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 6:31 AM
Moonset: 5:24 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: North wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:30 AM
Moonset: 5:50 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Very warm today. Near record highs.
2. Breezy conditions. Use care if you must burn leaves or fields.
3. Rain chances ramping up Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Tapering Thursday afternoon and evening.
4. Watching additional shower chances this coming weekend.
5. Briefly cooler Friday, then another warming trend. Cooler towards the middle of next week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning!

Are you enjoying this amazing weather. A bit warm for October, but we take what nature throws our way. It is nice, even though I do love autumn weather, as well.

We do need rain. Thankfully, widespread rain is on the way!

A band of showers and thunderstorms will rapidly move across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

It will be very warm today and tomorrow. Some locations could hit record high temperatures. Highs will mostly be in the 80s across the region. Gusty winds, as well.

You can expect gusty winds today into Wednesday night. Occasional gusts above 30 mph. Those winds could disturb some outdoor holiday decorations.

The gusty winds will cause some issues for those burning leaves or fields. Use care, as always. Relative humidity levels will be increasing over the coming days. That will at least help keep the fire risk a tad lower.

Blowing dust is possible over the Missouri Bootheel and southeast Missouri near plowed fields. The risk of blowing dust is lower elsewhere.

Our much talked about cold front pushes into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be the first front to bring substantial widespread rain chances to the region since late September!

This graphic shows you just how dry it has been.

The number 132 means the driest September 30th to October 27th since 132 years ago.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

We are not expecting severe weather with this particular cold front.

A widespread 0.5″ to 1.00″ of rain is anticipated. Pockets of higher totals are possible. This will be the most rain since Hurricane Helene moved across our region in late September.

Here is the latest WPC NOAA rainfall forecast. Double click the image to enlarge it.

Rain may disrupt some Halloween festivities on Thursday.

Current forecasts indicate a 70% to 100% chance of rain from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with showers and storms tapering off from west to east by late afternoon and evening.

With any luck, the rain will clear out before the evening. I’m sure trick-or-treaters will be eagerly tracking the radars. It’s shaping up to be a race against time with rain tapering west to east.

Schools planning outdoor activities on Thursday morning and afternoon should prepare for potential showers and thunderstorms.

Much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should be dry by the evening hours. Rain showers will likely continue over our southeastern counties into the evening hours.

Here is the future-cast radars from the NAM and NAM 3K models. Time stamp can be found in the upper left side of the animation.

Time stamp is in Zulu. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM.

You can see how the rain moves across the region from west to east.

NAM model

NAM 3K model does not go out quite far enough to capture the entire rain event. Today’s run will go out farther.

Here are the official NWS rainfall probabilities.

7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday

7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

A series of weather disturbances will move across the Central United States Friday into next week. This should bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to our region. There is quite a bit of disagreement on the timing and coverage.

Quite a bit of data shows very heavy rain totals just a bit to our west. I will be monitoring to see if that shifts a bit eastward, with time. Either way, we will have at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this weekend into next week. On and off chances. Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.

Here is the EC model. It does show several chances of rain.

Saturday night/Sunday morning

Monday afternoon

Wednesday, November 6th

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.