October 28, 2024: Rain chances ramp up this week!

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely Wednesday night into Thursday evening. I will monitor Sunday and Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Increasing southerly winds will bring stronger transport winds and aid in mixing, but RH values will creep upward as well. Expecting RH values to dip to around 40-50% this afternoon. On Tuesday, RH values will draw a bit, in addition to very good or excellent smoke dispersion conditions.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Saturday Seven Day Video

A more detailed look at the Halloween storm system

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 4:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few high clouds. Warmer. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 4:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and then tapering chances into Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous northwest. Widely scattered southeast.
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset: 5:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecasts.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. I will need to monitor the timing of the front. If it speeds up, then Thursday night will be drier.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Tapering as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 6:31 AM
Moonset: 5:24 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm today. Mild tonight. Breezy, at times.
2. Warming trend through Wednesday. The 80s return.
3. Rain chances ramping up Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Tapering Thursday evening and night.
4. Watching additional shower chances next weekend.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning!

I hope you had a nice weekend! It was cooler, but still nice. Autumn weather.

It will be warmer today. That warm weather will linger into Wednesday and Thursday. Near record high temperatures are possible over the next few days with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s!

Tuesday may end up being the warmest day. That will partly depend on cloud cover. Same for Wednesday.

Southerly winds will begin to pick up ahead of our next cold front. You can expect gusty winds to develop today and tonight and continue into Thursday. Peak gusts will likely be Tuesday into Wednesday night. Occasional gusts above 30 mph. Those winds could disturb some outdoor holiday decorations.

The gusty winds will cause some issues for those burning leaves or fields. Use care, as always. Relative humidity levels will be increasing over the coming days. That will at least help keep the fire risk a tad lower.

Our much talked about cold front pushes into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be the first front to bring substantial widespread rain chances to the region since late September.

The risk of severe weather appears minimal. I will keep a close eye on it. The Storm Prediction Center did outline a risk zone well to our west on Wednesday.

A widespread 0.5″ to 1.00″ of rain is anticipated. Pockets of higher totals are possible. This will be the most rain since Hurricane Helene moved across our region in late September.

Here is the latest WPC NOAA rainfall forecast. Double click the image to enlarge it.

We need this rain.

Sadly, rain may disrupt some Halloween festivities on Thursday. Current forecasts indicate a 70% to 100% chance of rain from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with showers and storms tapering off from west to east by late afternoon and evening.

With any luck, the rain will clear out before the evening. I’m sure trick-or-treaters will be eagerly tracking the radars. It’s shaping up to be a race against time with rain tapering west to east.

Schools planning outdoor activities on Thursday morning and afternoon should prepare for potential showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the future-cast radars from the GFS and EC models. Time stamp can be found in the upper left side of the animation.

You can see how the rain moves across the region from west to east.

GFS model

EC model

Here are the official NWS rainfall probabilities.

7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday

7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

A series of weather disturbances will move across the Central United States Friday into next Wednesday. This should bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to our region. There is quite a bit of disagreement on the timing and coverage.

Quite a bit of data shows very heavy rain totals just a bit to our west. I will be monitoring to see if that shifts a bit eastward, with time. Either way, we will have at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this coming weekend into next week. On and off chances. Monitor updates if you have outdoor events.

For example, here is the EC and GFS models. This shows you rainfall totals through this week and into next week. Notice the large number just to our west.

That is what I will be monitoring. Some of the precipitation should impact our region, as well. It is just a matter of how much.

A lot of what you see on this map will fall Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

GFS model

A lot of what you see on this map will fall Wednesday night into Thursday evening.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.