Sunday, October 29, 2023
More rain! Today into tonight.
Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance. This takes us through 12 AM Monday morning.
Rainfall totals through the same time period.
Saturday, October 28, 2023
11:45 AM Radar
Widespread rain is approaching from Arkansas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already impacting portions of the region. Coverage will dramatically increase this afternoon and evening.
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Regional Radar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Saturday to Saturday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today into Sunday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Locally heavy rain today into Sunday night. This could cause ponding of water in some areas. Ditches may overflow. Leaves could clog drainage points. This could lead to spotty issues.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Expected rain totals. This may be a little high in some counties, but you can take the general idea from these graphics.
A widespread one to two inches of rain. Pockets of greater than two inches. This will run from today through Monday morning.
Saturday, October 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy. A range of temperatures. Rain coverage will rapidly increase this afternoon and evening. During the day, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then, increasing coverage as we move deeper into the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will overspread the region from southwest to northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 15 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 6:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Sunday, October 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy. A range of temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly before 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:30 PM
Moonset: 8:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, October 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Chilly. Breezy. Damp. A chance of scattered showers. Mainly during the morning hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances before noon vs after noon.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be damp and windy. Colder.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder. Patchy frost and or freeze conditions. Frost is more likely if the wind dies down.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:08 PM
Moonset: 9:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, October 31, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Chilly. Breezy. Increasing clouds. A slight chance of sprinkles or flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Evening clouds with a chance of sprinkles or flurries. Colder. Clearing overnight. Frost and/or freeze conditions developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 25° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 23° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:53 PM
Moonset: 10:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Rain.
- Colder this weekend into next week.
- Frost and freeze chances increasing.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
A wet weekend ahead of us.
Today (Saturday) will deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms. Quite a bit of dry time this morning, but then rain rapidly expands and moves into the region this afternoon and evening.
The Hrrr model paints this quite well. Take the general idea of what radar might look like later today.
If you have outdoor plans, then monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
1 PM Saturday evening. Future-cast radar.
4 PM Saturday evening. Future-cast radar.
7 PM Saturday evening. Future-cast radar.
Some of the rain will be locally heavy.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday night/Monday morning.
Rainfall totals of one to three inches is the going forecast. Expect a widespread one to two inches. Pockets of higher than two inches.
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. thankfully.
It will turn sharply colder today into next week.
Temperatures today will fall across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Highs will only reach into the 50s and 60s today.
Highs Sunday will top out in the 40s and 50s. Chilly wind, as well.
The coldest air of the autumn season will arrive Sunday night into Thursday morning.
A widespread frost and or freeze will occur Monday night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday night. This will bring an end to the growing season.
I know many of you are tired of mowing the grass!
A few showers may linger into Monday morning. Then, dry conditions Monday night through Thursday.
Halloween will be cold. Highs in the 40s. Lows in the 20s. Wind chill values in the 20s.
7 PM Tuesday wind chill values. What the temperature feels like to your skin.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model Future-cast Radar. What radar might look like.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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