Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing and chilly.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Frost Risk:  Wind conditions should help prevent frost.
Wind: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility where fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:01 PM
Moonrise:  9:25  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:15 AM

October 29, 2018
Monday forecast:  Mostly sunny and mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70        KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50     KY ~ 45 to 50      TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: Winds becoming southerly at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:00 PM
Moonrise:  10:24  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:17 PM

October 30, 2018
Tuesday forecast:  Mostly sunny. Warm.  Temperatures could approach 80 degrees in some locations.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 78      IL ~ 75 to 78        KY ~ 75 to 78    TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None anticipated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 6 moderate to high
Sunrise: 7:18 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Rain developing from NW to SE.  A thunderstorm possible, especially late at night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54       TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage ahead and behind a cold front.
Frost Risk: No
Wind: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:59 PM
Moonrise:  10:24  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:17 PM

October 31, 2018
Wednesday forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  A thunderstorm possible.  Locally heavy rain likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to  68      IL ~ 64 to  68        KY ~ 64 to  68      TN ~ 64 to  68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90%     IL ~ 90%     KY ~ 90%     TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Wind:  South at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds will shift behind the cold front and become west and northwest.  The timing of the cold front is in question.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning possible.  Wet roadways.  Some low land flooding possible (fields and ditches)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes, have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 2  Low
Sunrise: 7:19 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~  44 to 48     KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Frost Risk: None
Wind:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan b and monitor updates
Sunset: 5:58 PM
Moonrise:  11:59  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  2:03 PM

Here is the American GFS model guidance future-cast radar.  This model is lower resolution and is broad-brushed.  The colors represent rain.  The yellow colors are heavier rain.

Click to enlarge the animation.

The timestamp is located in the upper left-hand corner.

Here is the American GFS rainfall totals map.

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WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

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You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through next Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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