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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Rain totals Wednesday night and Thursday may be enough to cause some problems. The heaviest band of rain will likely be across western Tennessee into western Kentucky. Over two inches if likely in spots.
5. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor. I am monitoring Friday night.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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October 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 44° to 50° South IL 44° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 60° warmest near Hopkinsville and cooler near Paducah NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early. Diminishing through the day from SE to NW.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Any remaining rain will end. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few remaining wet roadways. Fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:38 PM
Moonset: 3:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Morning fog. Cloudy. Rain will spread into the region from north to south. Some moderate downpours possible. Rain chances will be higher over the Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. It will spread northward.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 66° South IL 62° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Becoming more numerous as the day wears on.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor the chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° north to 52° south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Monitor the chance of flash flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 5:03 PM
Moonset: 4:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Locally heavy rain. A dry slot may move into portions of the area. We will have to monitor that. Rain will end where that occurs.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North winds over our northerly counties. South winds over our southern counties. Variable wind direction 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Heavy rain. Small chance of lightning. Monito the flash flood risk where the heaviest rain band occurs.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Any remaining rain showers should end.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Rain ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Moonrise: 5:27 PM
Moonset: 5:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few patchy clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 35° to 38° NW TN 36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Light north wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:52 PM
Moonset: 6:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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October 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Light and variable wind. Wind becoming southeast.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:19 PM
Moonset: 7:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: A few clouds. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:49 PM
Moonset: 7:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost possible. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 8:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Rain chances over the coming days.
- Nicer weather Friday into early next week (dry spell).
Click graphics to enlarge them.
The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 1st: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 27th
Locally heavy rain is likely this week. The main time-frame of concern will be Wednesday night into Thursday.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather.
- Series of fronts and disturbances.
- Halloween weather is shaping up dry.
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Well, some of us were complaining about the dry weather. That complaint is going away.
One system brought rain (ongoing) to the region over the past day or so.
The heaviest rain has been across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. That was forecast.
Rain slid into portions of northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky overnight. Not much, but a bit.
The Weather Observatory picked up 0.16″ rain over the past 24 hours. Other areas picked up more than that.
Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois received one to two inches of rain. Perhaps a few spots with higher amounts over southeast Missouri.
The rain will continue today (see radars). The rain will slowly diminish as the day wears on.
Then, all eyes turn to the next system.
Hurricane Zeta will push into the Gulf of Mexico (it is a tropical storm this morning but will regain strength).
That system will combine with another system approaching from the west.
This will all happen Wednesday into Thursday.
The end result will be widespread rain spreading into the region from the south.
The heaviest rain will fall Wednesday night into Thursday. A widespread 0.50″ to 1.50″ rain event will occur. Then, there will be pockets of 2.00″ to 4.00″ of rain.
As the NWS mentioned, the last few tropical events have underpeformed in most areas. This one, however, appears a bit more likely to produce heavier totals.
The heaviest totals will likely fall over Tennessee and Kentucky. That does not mean Missouri and Illinois won’t see heavy downpours. It is simply more likely that the heaviest rain falls over Tennessee and Kentucky.
I can’t rule out a flash flood warning. There was some heavy rain over these areas over the past couple of weeks. That will need to be monitored.
Now, for the good news! Dry weather is forecast Friday into much of next week. Will all of next week be dry? That might be a bit of a stretch. With that said, the models show Friday through Wednesday dry. Perhaps a dry cold front with some clouds.
If that holds, then that will help some of you finish your field work. Many of you have been asking for a dry spell.
Let me show you what the models are showing for rain totals between now and Thursday night.
Most of this falls with the remnants of Zeta and the other system that it will combine with.
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My current forecast is for the heaviest totals to fall over Tennessee and Kentucky. There is a little room for error northwest and southeast. That is the current forecast.
These are four models. Of course, they don’t agree. They rarely do. Take a general idea from them and insert what I said above.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 27th through November 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 3rd through November 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers November 10th through November 23rd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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