Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

October 26, 2018
Friday forecast:  Cloudy.  Damp.  Cool.  Patchy fog.  Light rain and drizzle lingering through the morning and early afternoon hours.  Rain ending southwest to northeast through the day.  Breezy, this afternoon.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56      TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% before 12 pm and then decreasing to 20% after 5 pm    IL ~ 60% before 1 pm and then decreasing to 20% after 5 pm    KY ~ 60% before 1 pm and then decreasing to 20% after 4 pm     TN ~ 60% during the morning and then 20% after 4 pm
Coverage of precipitation:  Decreasing coverage as we move through the day.  Ending from southwest to northeast.
Wind: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours.  Check radars in the afternoon (rain showers ending)
UV Index: 1 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A cloudy evening with a sprinkle or two.  Cool temperatures.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 44      IL ~ 42 to 44      KY ~ 43 to 45       TN ~ 43 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Rain should have ended.  An evening shower possible over southeast Illinois and eastern portions of western Kentucky
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph with evening gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be damp and a few sprinkles possible.
Sunset: 6:04 PM
Moonrise:  7:49  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  9:04 AM

October 27, 2018
Saturday forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of an isolated light shower.  Some clearing as the day progresses.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 56 to 62        KY ~ 58 to 62      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: West at 5 to 10 pm with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet road.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:15 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44      IL ~ 40 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 45       TN ~ 40 to 454
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility where fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:03 PM
Moonrise:  8:34  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  10:11 AM

October 28, 2018
Sunday forecast:  Partly sunny.  Becoming windy.   An isolated shower over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Warmer.  Mostly sunny sky conditions developing.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70      IL ~ 63 to 66        KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (mainly over our northeast counties)
Wind: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Windy for area boaters.  A couple of wet roadways possible (southeast IL and northwest KY)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
UV Index: 4 to 6  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing and chilly.  Perhaps some patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Frost Risk:  Wind conditions should help prevent frost.
Wind: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility where fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:01 PM
Moonrise:  9:25  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:15 AM

October 29, 2018
Monday forecast:  Mostly sunny and mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70        KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~ 45 to 50     KY ~ 45 to 50      TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: Winds becoming southerly at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:00 PM
Moonrise:  10:24  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:17 PM

October 30, 2018
Tuesday forecast:  Mostly sunny. Warm.  Temperatures could approach 80 degrees in some locations.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 78      IL ~ 75 to 78        KY ~ 75 to 78    TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None anticipated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to 6 moderate to high
Sunrise: 7:18 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Rain developing from NW to SE.  A thunderstorm possible, especially late at night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 48 to 54      KY ~ 48 to 54       TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage ahead and behind a cold front.
Frost Risk: No
Wind: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:59 PM
Moonrise:  10:24  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:17 PM

October 31, 2018
Wednesday forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  A thunderstorm possible.  Locally heavy rain likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to  68      IL ~ 64 to  68        KY ~ 64 to  68      TN ~ 64 to  68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90%     IL ~ 90%     KY ~ 90%     TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Wind:  South at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds will shift behind the cold front and become west and northwest.  The timing of the cold front is in question.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning possible.  Wet roadways.  Some low land flooding possible (fields and ditches)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes, have a plan B
UV Index: 1 to 2  Low
Sunrise: 7:19 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48     IL ~  44 to 48     KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Frost Risk: None
Wind:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan b and monitor updates
Sunset: 5:58 PM
Moonrise:  11:59  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  2:03 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through next Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

1.  A damp and cool day ahead of us.
2.  Warming trend.
3.  I am monitoring another cold front from Wednesday and Thursday.

Well, it is a damp and chilly morning across the region.  Widespread rain developed last night and is lingering into this morning.  Rain totals have mostly be in the 0.15″ to 0.40″ range.

The storm system, responsible for our overnight rain, is pulling away from the area.

We picked up around 0.30″ here at the Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois.

Here is the Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar.  This takes us into the afternoon hours.  Notice how the rain is pulling away as we push through the day.

A warming trend is on tap for the weekend.

A few clouds on Saturday.  Rain chances Saturday will be 20% or less.  Most areas will remain dry.

A storm system will push into the region by Sunday.  This system could produce enough lift for a few showers to develop over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Many areas may remain dry.

Some areas may approach 70 degrees by Sunday afternoon.  That would actually be above the seasonal norms.

Strong and gusty winds will develop by Sunday afternoon.  Gusts above 30 mph will be possible.

Our next weather maker arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Over the last 24 hours, the model guidance has sped the front up.  That would mean an earlier arrival time for rain.

The rain could be locally heavy.  Most guidance paints more than an inch of rain across the region.

I am monitoring the data trends.  I am not overly confident about what time the cold front arrives.

The peak rain chances will be near the cold front.  Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

Here is the future-cast radar from the GFS model guidance.  The time stamp is located in the upper left-hand corner of the animation.

You can see the rain arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The GFS shows locally heavy rain along the cold front.

Here are the GFS model guidance rain totals.  Heavy rain totals on the GFS.  This will need to be monitored.

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Fall Outlook!

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

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Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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