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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 25, 2016
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Cool autumn night. Perhaps some patchy fog.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming more southerly overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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October 26, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Warm. Perhaps breezy. Increasing clouds from the west during the afternoon hours. Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois during the afternoon hours. Most areas will remain dry.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways. Most areas will remain dry on Wednesday.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast winds at 7-14 mph with some higher gusts possible. Winds might become more south/southwest during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated to scattered during the afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars during the afternoon (mainly MO/IL)
Sunrise will be at 7:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9 (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Many areas will pick up very little in the way of measurable rainfall.
What impact is expected? Spotty wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming west.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts and radars.
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October 27, 2016
Thursday: Partly sunny. A little cooler than Wednesday. Rain should have moved well off to our east by sunrise Thursday.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming north/northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:15 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:01 p.m.
UV Index: 5-6
Moonrise will be at 4:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:45 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds perhaps becoming east at 4-8 mph. Winds variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 28, 2016
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Above normal temperatures, yet again.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:16 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:00 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9 (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 5:13 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:16 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Friday Night: Some clouds possible.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most Likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 29, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:17 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:59 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 6:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:48 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 30, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest winds becoming east winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:18 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:58 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:20 p.m. New Moon.
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 31, 2016
Halloween
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild for October.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:57 p.m.
UV Index: 7-9
Moonrise will be at 7:57 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:54 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated, at this time
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Warm weather to continue
- Cold front Wednesday/Wednesday night
- Showers?
- Dry weather in the extended
- Pattern flip towards the middle of November?
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday was a beautiful day across the region. Wow, is all I can say. It certainly does not feel like the middle of autumn.
Wednesday will deliver spring like conditions. Highs in the upper 70’s and perhaps a few 80 degree readings. WELL above normal temperatures. Our incredible October warmth continues. This will likely be one of the top five warmest October’s on record.
A cold front will push into the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening. This front will be accompanied by a clouds and a band/broken band of showers. A rumble of thunder possible. Precipitation totals in the 0.15″-0.30″ range will be possible. Some areas may receive no measurable rainfall. If a thunderstorm develops then a few spots could pick up more than 0.30″. This is not going to be a big rain event for the region.
Temperatures will remain above normal into the first week of November. There will be some cool nights, but overall the guidance points towards more of the same. Above normal readings.
The pattern might shift towards the second or third week of November. That would mean colder temperatures. Eventually this is all going to catch up with us. It can’t stay warm forever!
Let me show you three different computer weather models. The NAM model, the GFS model, and the Canadian GEM model. These maps are showing you how much rain each model is projecting for our Wednesday afternoon/night system. Not much.
I will show you three models. These are projected rainfall totals for Wednesday afternoon and night.
NAM model guidance
GFS model guidance
Canadian GEM
All of these models are showing meager rainfall totals. Some spotty areas with higher totals. Again, some areas may receive no measurable rainfall.
Here is the NAM future-cast radar for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
This first image is for 4 pm on Wednesday afternoon. You can see a band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
Wednesday evening at 7 pm
Wednesday night at 10 pm
Thursday morning at 1 am
Thursday morning at 4 am
7 am on Thursday morning. Precipitation pushes off to the east.
A weak system will pass to our north on Friday night/Saturday. At this time, it appears rain chances will be small (if any at all). Most likely it will remain dry. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
Another system approaches next Tuesday and then another around November 4th. Long way off for that one.
If you are a regular follower of my weather information then I would encourage you to attend one of the FREE upcoming STORM SPOTTER classes.
You can register at the following LINK – CLICK HERE
Click graphic to register, as well
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Cold front moves into the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm. Not anticipating severe weather.
Thursday into Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major adjustments in this update.
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No significant weather concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
