Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Today into this evening (mainly north). I am watching a cold front next Wednesday night and Thursday/Thursday night. Lightning is possible along that front.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Sunday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A cold front will move through the region today with only scattered rain chances at best. Most areas will be dry today. RH values in the afternoon will drop to around 35-45% over the region, with good mixing and W transport winds around 10-15 kts. This will result in good smoke dispersal conditions. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive this weekend, with minimum RH values of 25-35% forecast by Sunday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Saturday Seven Day Video
Long Range Video
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm over mainly the northern half of the region. Small chances as you travel southward.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming west 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:05 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time, but more likely after 3 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 59° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest becoming north 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:37 AM
Moonset: 3:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Some morning clouds. A chance of showers across far southeast MO into western KY and NW TN early in the morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 3:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 49° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 2:40 AM
Moonset: 3:58 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 4:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:00 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 4:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and then tapering chances into Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous northwest. Widely scattered southeast.
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:32 AM
Moonset: 5:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 75°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecasts.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. I will need to monitor the timing of the front. If it speeds up, then Thursday night will be drier.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Tapering as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: After 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: 6:31 AM
Moonset: 5:24 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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- Very warm today.
- Low end shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday night. Mainly north.
- Cooler Saturday and Sunday.
- Very warm next week with well above average temperatures.
- Monitoring a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Wow, has it been dry. The driest September 30th to October 22nd in 130 to 132 years.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Also, notice the large area of brown on the map. It covers a large chunk of America. Very dry over large swaths of territory.
I hope you had a nice week. The weather sure has been nice. Other than the lack of rainfall.
Well above average temperatures are likely today. Average highs for this time of the year are in the 60s. We will be in the 80s today. Some locations could reach record high temperatures.
A cold front is moving into the region. We already have a few showers on radar. You can expect a few more as we move through the day. Rain chances will taper tonight.
Rain chances will be highest across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lower chances as you travel south southeast. Higher as you travel north northwest.
This map shows you rainfall totals over the next 24-hours. Not much. Not enough to dent the drought.
There will be some showers Saturday morning. Mainly early. The chances of those showers will be higher across far southeast MO into western KY and TN. Smaller chances north of there.
We could have some additional shower and thunderstorm chances around Halloween. A strong cold front is showing up in the charts. Hopefully, the rain won’t interfere with Halloween activities, but we do need rain.
Windy conditions are likely next week, as well.
The GFS model shows almost nothing happening. It keeps us mostly dry.
Here is the GFS
The EC model shows a higher probability of precipitation. The battle of the models. For the time being, since it is beyond the long range forecast period, I am simply watching trends.
It shows a band of thunderstorms pushing across the region. I will be monitoring trends.
This Halloween system has shown up in the charts for a couple of weeks. When something keeps showing up in the charts, it usually ends up verifying. At least some degree of it. I’ll be monitoring.
Here is the latest NOAA/WPC rainfall outlook. This is mainly from the system around Halloween. We can hope. We sure do need the rain.
Don’t forget, our second severe weather season is approaching. Typically, late October into November produce systems with severe weather. That does include tornadoes. Our deadliest tornadoes tend to be in the autumn and winter.
Stay weather-wise.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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