Quick afternoon update.
The Thursday rain will be light. Sprinkles. Thickening clouds. Light showers. Many may not pick up hardly any measurable rain.
The general rain arrives towards the evening and into the overnight hours. Even then, the totals are going to be light.
Here is the Hrrr model guidance. This shows you rain totals from now into Thursday evening.
The time stamp is at the top.
You are looking at an animation of rain totals.
Click to enlarge the animation
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October 24, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some increase in clouds through the day. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool. Showers should hold off until Thursday. I will monitor trends.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will monitor southeast Missouri after 3 AM. A few showers may approach from the southwest.
Frost Risk: No
Wind: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 PM Full
Moonset: 6:56 AM
October 25, 2018
Thursday forecast: Cloudy. Cooler. A few showers (light) possible during the morning. Light rain or sprinkles during the afternoon hours, especially over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% north and 50% south IL ~ 20% north of Carbondale and 40% south of Carbondale KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered during the morning. Spotty light rain and showers in the afternoon. Rain increases as we move into the evening hours.
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? During the morning, no. During the afternoon I would recommend a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 1 to 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Frost Risk: None
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph with gusts above 15 mph from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 7:09 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:59 AM
October 26, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers are again possible. The greatest coverage will be during the morning hours. Decreasing coverage as we push towards evening.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% before 12 pm and then decreasing to 30% after 5 pm IL ~ 60% before 1 pm and then decreasing to 40% after 5 pm KY ~ 60% before 1 pm and then decreasing to 40% after 5 pm TN ~ 60% during the morning and then 40% after 5 pm
Coverage of precipitation: Decreasing coverage as we move through the day. Ending from west to east.
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the morning hours. Otherwise, check radars during the afternoon.
UV Index: 1 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Cool. Patchy fog. Rain should have ended.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should have ended. An evening shower possible over southeast Illinois and eastern portions of western Kentucky
Frost Risk: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:04 PM
Moonrise: 7:49 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:04 AM
October 27, 2018
Saturday forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance of a shower or two.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 pm
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 454
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Frost Risk: None
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Sunset: 6:03 PM
Moonrise: 8:34 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM
October 28, 2018
Sunday forecast: Quite a few clouds. A few light showers are possible. Otherwise, clouds and cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: CLearing and chilly. Perhaps some patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Any remaining showers should end.
Frost Risk: Wind conditions should help prevent frost.
Wind: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility where fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:01 PM
Moonrise: 9:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:15 AM
October 29, 2018
Monday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Frost Risk: Possible
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:00 PM
Moonrise: 10:24 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:17 PM
October 30, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly sunny. Cool, again.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Frost Risk: No
Wind: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? I will be monitoring shower chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low to medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 5:59 PM
Moonrise: 10:24 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:17 PM
October 31, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Some increase in clouds. I will be monitoring rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Frost Risk:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 5:58 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 2:03 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
The WPC has painted 0.10″ to 0.30″ across our local area.
Click to enlarge.
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This next graphic is the NAM model guidance. This is a short range model.
The NAM is showing widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″. This would be through early Saturday afternoon. Most of the rain falls tomorrow into Friday.
Models are somewhat in agreement on radar totals.
Here is another model. This is the GFS rainfall forecast through Monday morning.
The GFS is bullish on 0.25″ to 0.50″.
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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain chances will be on the increase over the coming days
- Cool weather into next week
Welcome to the middle of the week. It has been a decent week, thus far. Yesterday was even warm across some of our counties. A few locations hit 70 degrees. Not too bad for autumn. That is near the seasonal norms.
All good things must come to an end. At least that is what they say!
Let’s look at satellite. This is the visible GOES 16 image.
Click image to enlarge
The weather is about to turn cloudy and damp. The good news is that I am not forecasting heavy rain totals. The bad news is that the clouds and damp weather will last into at least Friday (a few showers are possible Saturday and likely Sunday).
The best chance of rain will be on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. We will have showers on the radar as early as late tonight into Thursday morning. The coverage, however, will increase as we move through Thursday late morning and afternoon.
One wave of precipitation will impact the southern half of my forecast area late tonight into the first half of Thursday. That will include the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee. The second wave of precipitation will impact the entire area as we move into Thursday afternoon and night.
Rain totals won’t be all that impressive. I am anticipating a widespread 0.25″ to 0.50′ event. A few locations could pick up a bit more. The greatest chance of slightly heavier totals will be across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Severe weather is not anticipated.
Let’s look at some model future-cast radars. What radar might look like over the coming days.
This first one is the high-resolution 3K NAM model
The colors represent rain.
Showery.
Time-stamp upper left
This next one is the lower resolution NAM model
Here is the temperature animation, as well. Again, the time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of animation.
I am monitoring another system that will arrive Sunday. This could bring more showers to the area. This system will push into the region from the northwest.
Gusty winds are possible Sunday into Monday.
Here are the last fourteen days. These colors represent temperature anomalies. How many degrees above or below normal have temperatures been?
Click maps to enlarge (same as all graphics on this page).
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
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Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 666
This week’s Guest WeatherBrain is a world-renowned meteorologist, prognosticator, and extended outlook specialist. A 1978 graduate of Penn State University with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology and former Nittany Lion Wrestler, he worked at AccuWeather soon after graduation. He currently works for WeatherBELL Analytics as co-Chief Forecaster. Joe Bastardi, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
Hurricane Willa approaches the Mexican coast
Winter weather outlook from the panel
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
