Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!

For $5 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed messages from me to you.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.

• Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
• Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
• AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
• Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
• Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
• Long-range weather videos
• Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  Monthly outlooks.
• Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Would you like to subscribe?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

October 22, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 63 to 66     TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Not as cold as recent nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45       TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: None
Wind: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph becoming west and northwest
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:09 PM
Moonrise:  5:31  PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  4:54 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Chilly.  Patchy fog and frost.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38      IL ~ 32 to 36      KY ~ 34 to 38       TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: Likely
Wind: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:08 PM
Moonrise:  6:02  PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  5:54 AM

October 24, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 45       TN ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Frost Risk:  No
Wind: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:06 PM
Moonrise:  6:34  PM Full
Moonset:  6:56 AM

October 25, 2018
Thursday forecast:  Cloudy.  Cooler.  A few showers (light) possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55      IL ~ 50 to 55       KY ~ 52 to 56      TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 2 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Some showers likely will dot radar.  Rain coverage is still questionable.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise:  7:09  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  7:59 AM

October 26, 2018
Friday forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers are again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60      IL ~ 55 to 60       KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways are possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would think about a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 1 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:12 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 38 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: Variable wind direction at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:04 PM
Moonrise:  7:49  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  9:04 AM

October 27, 2018
Saturday forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58        KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 2  Low
Sunrise: 7:15 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  An isolated shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45      IL ~ 40 to 45      KY ~ 40 to 45       TN ~ 40 to 454
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Frost Risk:  None
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to a few wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:03 PM
Moonrise:  8:34  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  10:11 AM

October 28, 2018
Sunday forecast:  Partly cloudy and cool.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58        KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  Frost possible
Wind: West at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:01 PM
Moonrise:  9:25  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:15 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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1.  Calm weather through Wednesday.
2.  Mild days and cool nights.
3.  Monitoring rain chances late Wednesday night into Thursday.
4.  I am monitoring rain chances this coming weekend.

Good day, everyone!

Did you catch last night’s sunset?   These photos were taken at The Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois.  I love the sunsets here.

Click to enlarge

What about this morning’s sunrise!

Email me your photos or post them on Facebook.  Be sure and tell me the location.

You may also send me weather photos via Twitter.  Find me @beaudodson

No major weather concerns today through Wednesday.

You can expect a mild day today with highs in the 60’s.  I had to bump them up a few degrees from the previous forecast.

A dry cold front will push through the region Tuesday.  This will reinforce the cool air.

Highs Tuesday afternoon should be in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s north and in the lower to middle 60’s south (north meaning Perryville, Missouri towards Carmi, Illinois.

Our next weather maker arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday night.  There remain questions as to the coverage of rain.

A system will move into the region from the southwest.  This may mean an increase in rain chances late Wednesday night.  The rain would continue into Thursday.

The NAM model guidance shows the rain nicely.  Other model guidance do not agree.

Click to enlarge.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

The GFS model guidance also shows rain, but it keeps the rain away from our region.

I will keep an eye on trends.

I am then going to monitor another system as we move into Friday and Saturday.

This system will increase clouds and eventually deliver some rain showers.  Peak rain chances will likely be on Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans, then monitor updated forecasts.

The good news is that heavy rain is not anticipated.

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Fall Outlook!

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

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Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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