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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. SEE THE DETAILS FURTHER DOWN IN THE BLOW **
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today. Tonight far northern counties. Friday and Friday night. Sunday night and Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Friday, Sunday night, and Monday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday night/Monday. Monitor updates.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor next week. Next week we stand a better chance of frost/freeze.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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October 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A WIDE range of temperatures. Intervals of clouds early and then clearing south to north. Clouds will linger longer over our northern counties. A chance of a few remaining showers over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% north IL ~ 30% north KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 66° north to 78° south South IL 66° far north to 78° far south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 78° West KY 76° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways north
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Clearing. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:44 AM
Moonset: 10:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 82° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 6:09 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few late night clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:40 PM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered – perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 6:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy early. Any showers and thunderstorms remaining will push off to the east. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending west to east
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning (early).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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October 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A light shower or drizzle will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Drizzle possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:08 PM
Moonset: 12:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms ahead of our next cold front. Chances of rain will first develop over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Those chances will then spread south and east. There remain some questions on how fast the rain moves across the rest o the area. It is possible that a good portion of the day is dry over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. This will need to be monitored.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 65° to 68° South IL 65° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 68° West KY 72° to 75° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast increasing to 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 3. Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:05 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° MO 48° to 54° South IL 46° north to 54° south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph becoming west northwest late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 3:41 PM
Moonset: 1:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 55° north to 64° south South IL 55° north to 66° south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (perhaps numerous)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. Any snow or ice should stay to our west.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 4:12 PM
Moonset: 2:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Warmer weather.
- Two weekend cold front.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 28th: Not at this time. I will monitor Sunday night/Monday. Thunderstorms are possible. Not everything is coming together for severe weather. With that said, I am monitoring it.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 21st
Monitoring a cold front Friday/Friday night. Thunderstorms are possible along that front. Another front Sunday/Monday. More thunderstorms.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Here comes the warm temperatures.
- Friday cold front.
- Much cooler Saturday.
- Sunday/Monday cold front.
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A frontal boundary continues to be draped near our northern counties. This front has been the focus of showers and thunderstorms over the last 24 hours.
As of 7 AM, there remain some showers and isolated storms over our northern counties. Primarily over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Further south, conditions are dry.
There is some patchy dense fog in the region this morning. Use care.
There will be a wide range of temperatures today based on cloud cover. Same as yesterday. You can expect 60s over our far northern counties and near 80 over our southern counties.
You can see today’s temp spread on this graphic.
Dry conditions tonight into Thursday night. Patchy fog.
Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Warm for October.
Our next cold front arrives Friday and Friday night. It will bring another chance of shower and thunderstorms.
Saturday will be cloudy and cooler. A light shower will be possible. It will feel like autumn.
Another cold front arrives Sunday through Tuesday. This front will bring increasing chances of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
A bit early to forecast severe weather. Not everything is lining up. It does deserve to be watched. I will do that.
Some of the rain could be heavy with that front.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 21st through October 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 28th through November 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers November 3rd through November 11th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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