Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 20, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes. Today. Tonight far northern counties. Friday and Friday night.  Sunday night and Monday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.  I will keep an eye on Friday, Sunday night, and Monday.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.  Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday night/Monday. Monitor updates.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  Monitor next week.  Next week we stand a better chance of frost/freeze.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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October 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast
: ** Large temperature swings today because of clouds **  Intervals of clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly early).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  68° to 74°    SE MO 50° to  65°    South IL  52° north to 65° far south   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64°    West KY 60° to 74°    NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind becoming south southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 5.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 6:11 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:   Increasing clouds from the north.  A shower or thunderstorm possible far northern counties (near I64).  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% north and 10% south    IL ~  40% north and 10% south   KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°     MO  54° to 58°     South IL  54° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58°    West KY 54° to 58°     NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered far north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads.  Lower visibility in fog. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but northern counties should check radar
Moonrise: 11:38 AM
Moonset:  9:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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October 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast
: A WIDE range of temperatures. Intervals of clouds early and then clearing south to north.  Clouds will linger longer over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% north    IL ~  10% north    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82°    SE MO 66° north to  80° south    South IL  66° far north to 80° far south   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 78°    West KY 76° to 80°    NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways north (small chance).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds.  Clearing. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  55° to 60°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:44 AM
Moonset:  10:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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October 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 78° to  82°    South IL  78° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°    West KY 80° to 84°    NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 6:09 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65°     MO  60° to 64°     South IL  60° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°    West KY 60° to 65°     NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:40 PM
Moonset:  11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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October 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~  60%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°    SE MO 74° to  78°    South IL  74° to 78°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 76° to 78°    NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered – perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 5.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 6:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly early.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  40%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52°     MO  42° to 44°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 45° to 50°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending west to east
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning (early).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset:  6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

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October 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of a shower.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60°    SE MO 54° to  58°    South IL  54° to 58°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60°    West KY 56° to 60°    NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3.  Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 46° to 48°     NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:08 PM
Moonset:  12:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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October 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Increasing clouds. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms ahead of our next cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~  40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 65° to 70°    NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast increasing to 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 3.  Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:05 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%    IL ~  70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54°     MO  45° to 50°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 46° to 52°     NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph becoming west northwest late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.  Rain is likely.
Moonrise: 3:41 PM
Moonset:  1:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

 

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Warmer weather.
  2.  Two weekend cold front.

 

Click graphics to enlarge them.

The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return). 

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

 


Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through October 28th:  Not at this time.  I will monitor Friday and Friday night.  I will monitor Sunday night/Monday.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated October 20th

Monitoring a cold front Friday/Friday night.  Thunderstorms are possible along that front.

Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

 

    1.   Front moving north.
    2.   Warm conditions are on the way.
    3.   Friday cold front.

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RAIN!  Finally.  Many areas received 0.50″ to 4.5″ of rain over the past two days.  The heaviest band ended up over extreme southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

This was a MUCH needed rainfall event.  This will help damper the fire threat.  Thankfully.

We will have a WIDE range of temperatures over the next 24 to 36 hours.  This will be because of the frontal boundary draped near the region.

A front will push north through the region today.  A few showers and thunderstorms will accompany it.  Mainly over the northern half of the region.  Elsewhere, south of the front, it will be dry.

The front will linger near the I64 corridor tonight.  A few showers and storms will be the end result.  That would be near the Mt Vernon area.  South of there will remain dry.

Much warmer air will invade the region over the next three days.  I have 80s back in the forecast.  Warm for October.

Our next two cold fronts will arrive this weekend.

One of the fronts will push into the region Friday/Friday night and the second one Sunday night and Monday.  Both fronts will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

At this time, severe weather appears unlikely Friday/Friday night.  Low risk.  A better chance may develop Sunday night and Monday.  We still have several days to monitor that portion of the forecast.  Stay tuned.

 

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the EC model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  October 20th through October 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  October 27th through November 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers November 3rd through November 11th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING.  DURING THE GROWING SEASON.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

 

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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