Good day, everyone! I hope you have a great weekend.
Two weather concerns.
Wind today
We will have increasing winds today. Some of the winds could top 30 mph. Boaters should use care.
Otherwise, morning clouds will continue to exit off to the south and east. Many of you already have full sunshine.
Here is the early morning satellite. You can see the band of clouds moving south and southeast.
Track the clouds
Live satellite view. Click here.
The next weather concern arrives tonight and Sunday night.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower to middle 30’s both tonight and Sunday night. Some of the guidance data is a bit warmer than that during the Sunday overnight period. I will keep an eye on trends.
Either way, a frost and/or freeze will be possible both nights. The limiting factor for frost (tonight) will be the winds. If the winds don’t subside then frost won’t form. Freeze conditions would still be a concern.
Those with sensitive outlook plants may want to protect them.
Here is the Hrrr model guidance wind conditions for today. The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.
Click to enlarge the image.
Here is the NAM 3K model guidance temperature forecast for tonight and Sunday night. You can see some areas dip below freezing. We have been talking about this cold snap for awhile.
Saturday (below)
Click to enlarge
Sunday morning (below)
October 20, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny over the northern half of the region. Cloudy over the southern half of the region. Where there are clouds, the clouds will exit to the south and southeast during the morning hours. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 64 north and to 66 to 70 south IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 670 TN ~65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Becoming north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds are a concern for boaters.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A freeze is possible. Patchy fog and frost. Windy early. Wind decreasing overnight. If the winds die down then frost would be more likely to form.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 34 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Frost conditions will be high if the winds becoming light
Wind: North at 10 to 20 and gusty early becoming north at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring frost chances. Otherwise, patchy fog may form and lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
October 21, 2018
Sunday forecast: Morning frost and fog possible. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Frost and/or a freeze again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: High
Wind: Variable wind at less than 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost is possible. A freeze is possible, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:10 PM
Moonrise: 5:01 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM
October 22, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Not as cold as previous nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: None
Wind: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:09 PM
Moonrise: 5:31 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:54 AM
October 23, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Unlikely
Wind: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:02 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:54 AM
October 24, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds possible. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 42 to 46 TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but I am monitoring trends
Frost Risk: No
Wind: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 PM Full
Moonset: 6:56 AM
October 25, 2018
Thursday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. a shower possible. Low confidence in the rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Frost Risk: None
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but but monitor updates
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 7:09 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:59 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge.
No rain anticipated over the coming days. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday for rain chances.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A slight chance of lightning today and tonight.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
