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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today, Friday, and Friday night. I am monitoring Sunday night and Monday
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I will keep an eye on Friday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. Locally heavy rain today.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Monitor. Next week we stand a better chance of frost/freeze.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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October 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Cloudy. A showers and thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Locally heavy rain totals.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 54° to 60° South IL 56° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 64° to 72° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind. Northerly winds north of the front. Southerly winds south of the front. Wind speed 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 6:12 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° MO 42° to 48° South IL 42° north to 52° far south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous. More numerous early.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:27 AM
Moonset: 8:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly early).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 64° north to 72° far south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind becoming south southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 6:11 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the north. A slight chance of showers near Mt Vernon. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated far north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance of wet roads. Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:38 AM
Moonset: 9:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A WIDE range of temperatures. Intervals of clouds early and then clearing south to north.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% north IL ~ 10% north KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 65° north to 80° south South IL 65° far north to 80° far south Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways north (small chance).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 6:10 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:44 AM
Moonset: 10:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 6:09 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:40 PM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 72° to 76° South IL 72° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered – perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Sunset: 6:07 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly early.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending west to east
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning (early).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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October 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of a shower. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:08 PM
Moonset: 12:23 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Dry Sunday. Rain chances return Sunday night and Monday. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
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What is the UV index?
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- Rain chances today.
- Weekend cold front.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 22nd: Not at this time. I will monitor Friday and then next Sunday night/Monday.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 19th
A few thunderstorms today. Lightning is the main concern.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances.
- Friday cold front.
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The main weather story is rain! MUCH needed rain for portions of the region.
Rain developed last night near St Louis and then spread east southeast.
A cold front has settled southward into our region. The front won’t move much today. That means repeated chances of showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rain will be possible. This is good news for drought stricken areas. Especially true for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where very little rain has occurred over the past month or two.
The rain will help with our fire situation, as well.
Temperatures will be held down by today’s rain. Thick clouds and rain typically equal cooler temperatures.
Rain will continue into this evening and tonight.
As we move through tonight the frontal boundary will weaken and move back northward. That will take the main area of rain with it, as well.
We will still have a few showers late tonight but activity will be greatly reduced compared to what is on radar now (Monday AM).
Once again on Tuesday we will have some clouds in the region. Small rain chances. Temperatures may vary based on sunshine. Typical for this time of the year.
A nice warming trend begins Wednesday and Thursday. Some locations will push to 80 degrees and perhaps a tad above that. Widespread 70s. Not too bad for the month of October!
After a warm day on Thursday, all eyes will turn to our next cold front. That front is forecast to arrive Friday and Friday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along that cold front. I will keep an eye on severe weather parameters.
Temperatures will cool Saturday and Sunday.
Another strong cold front is forecast next week with more showers and thunderstorms. At this time, I am watching the Sunday night into Monday night timeframe for that frontal passage. Still some room for adjustments on that.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 19th through October 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 26th through November 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers October 27th through November 9th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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