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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
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October 19, 2018
Friday forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. A band of showers will push across the area from west to east. The most likely time frame would be the afternoon and evening hours. Rain will spread into southeast Missouri this morning and then southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 56 to 58 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~60% before 12 PM and then 70% afternoon IL ~ 50% before 12 PM and then 60% KY ~ 40% before 12 PM and then 70% TN ~ 40% before 12 PM and then 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A low end risk of a lightning strike.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible during the afternoon hours.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain early in the night. Decreasing rain chances through the night. Turning colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Rain ending from northwest to southeast overnight.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:58 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:00 AM
October 20, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Becoming north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog and frost possible. Windy early. Wind decreasing overnight. If the winds die down then frost would form.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 34 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Frost conditions will be high if the winds becoming light
Wind: North at 8 to 16 becoming north at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring frost chances. Otherwise, patchy fog may form and lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
October 21, 2018
Sunday forecast: Morning frost and fog possible. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Frost again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: High
Wind: Variable wind at less than 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost likely. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:10 PM
Moonrise: 5:01 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM
October 22, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Not as cold as previous nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: None
Wind: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:09 PM
Moonrise: 5:31 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:54 AM
October 23, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Unlikely
Wind: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:02 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:54 AM
October 24, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds possible. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 42 to 46 TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but I am monitoring trends
Frost Risk: No
Wind: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 PM Full
Moonset: 6:56 AM
October 25, 2018
Thursday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning rain. Wet roadways would be the impact.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. a shower possible. Low confidence in the rain chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Frost Risk: None
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but but monitor updates
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 7:09 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:59 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge.
This will fall today and tonight. Dry weather Saturday through Tuesday.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A slight chance of lightning today and tonight.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain today and tonight.
- Frost again possible Saturday night and Sunday night.
- Lower confidence in the forecast middle to end of next week.
Brrr A chilly start to the morning. Many areas dipped well into the 30’s. Some of you had your first frost!
Here were the early morning temperatures.
Click images to enlarge
Below normal temperatures will be with us into next week.
The big weather story will be rain chances later today and this evening.
Numerous rain showers will develop as we move through the day. Peak rain chances across southeast Missouri will be from 11 am to 5 pm. Peak rain chances across southern Illinois will peak between 2 PM and 7 PM. Rain chances in western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee will peak between 3 PM and 7 PM.
Rain totals won’t be heavy. I am anticipating 0.05″ to 0.30″. If a thunderstorm forms then slightly higher totals are certainly possible.
Severe weather is not a concern today. That is good news.
I know many of you have outdoor plans later today. I would suggest monitoring radars. Rain will be on radar as we move through the afternoon hours.
You can see the weather system responsible for our rain chances to our west and southwest.
This is a static radar image taken at 9 PM.
To see the live radars you may CLICK HERE
Let’s take a look at some monitor animations.
This first one is the NAM model. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner of the animation.
The colors represent rain.
Let’s take a look at the Hrrr model guidance. Another model (there are many).
The Hrrr model is great in the short range.
All models are wrong. Some models are less wrong.
It takes interpretation to fully understand all of the models and their biases.
Take a general idea from this. Do not leave thinking it will be exactly right.
Again, models are for guidance.
As always, click the image to enlarge it.
Rain will decrease in coverage as we move through the overnight hours.
Rain should completely end after midnight.
Again, rain totals should be on the light side. I went generally 0.05″ to 0.30″.
Here is what the Hrrr model guidance paints for rain totals.
Again, this is for guidance. It won’t be exact.
The general idea is that 0.05″ to 0.30″ of rain will fall across the area. Some pockets of higher totals possible.
The pick day of the weekend will be Saturday. It will be breezy, at times. Temperatures will rise into the 60’s. The wind will make it feel cooler.
Here is the wind gust animation. The date and time-stamp can be found in the upper left portion of the animation.
Click to enlarge
A nippy night is likely Saturday and Sunday night.
Low temperatures will dip into the 30’s.
The key to Saturday night’s frost chances will be wind conditions. If winds remain gusty then frost will not form. If winds die down then frost will form.
Right now, it appears the winds will subside some, but will it be enough for frost?
I would at least plan on frost Saturday night. If you have sensitive plants then cover them up.
Same for Sunday night. Frost is possible.
Notice the 20’s across central and northern Illinois. A freeze is likely there.
The mowing season is almost over.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
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Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 665
Tonight’s first guest is the Chief Meteorologist at WJHG-TV in Panama City, Florida. Chris Smith, welcome!
Also joining us is the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS in Tallahassee, Florida. Tom Johnstone, welcome! In addition, Ginger Zee, the Chief Meteorologist at ABC News, offers her insight and her harrowing story at the coast.
Up next is weather photographer Doug Kiesling, who shared some amazing footage taken from the coast. Storm chaser Mark Sudduth also shares his story from where he rode out the storm in Panama City and Mexico Beach as well as discusses his GoPro video from Mexico Beach. Storm Chaser Brett Adair joins WeatherBrains and discusses his amazing and life-threatening story from Mexico Beach. The Former Director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, also stops by and discusses Michael and it’s impact.
In addition, also joining us and adding to the all-star guest line-up is Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at WPLG-TV in Miami Florida. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University also drops by the show. Furthermore, Leslie Chapman-Henderson, President and CEO of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, as well as fellow FLASH associate and VP Mike Rimoldi, both stop by WeatherBrains.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Devastation along the Florida Gulf Coast after historic Hurricane Michael
- Discussion on Michael’s storm surge and historical comparisons
- Building code discussion along the Florida Gulf Coast
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
