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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
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October 18, 2018
Thursday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A bit cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds overnight. I will keep an eye on temperatures. If we do have clear sky conditions then it could be colder. That would mean a chance of frost.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Frost Risk: Low end risk
Wind: Variable wind at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the frost risk. Otherwise, patchy fog could limit visibility in a few areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Moonrise: 3:24 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:01 AM
October 19, 2018
Friday forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. A band of showers will push across the area from west to east. The most likely time frame would be the afternoon and evening hours. It is possible that most of Friday morning remains dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 56 to 58 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% before 12 PM and then 70% afternoon IL ~ 30% before 12 PM and then 60% KY ~ 30% before 12 PM and then 70% TN ~ 30% before 12 PM and then 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A low end risk of a lightning strike.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible during the afternoon hours.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain early in the night. Decreasing rain chances through the night. Turning colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Rain ending from northwest to southeast overnight.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:58 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:00 AM
October 20, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Becoming north and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog and frost possible. Windy early. Wind decreasing overnight. If the winds die down then frost would form.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 34 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Frost conditions will be high if the winds becoming light
Wind: North at 8 to 16 becoming north at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring frost chances. Otherwise, patchy fog may form and lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
October 21, 2018
Sunday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 512 to 55 IL ~ 52 to 55 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Frost likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: High
Wind: Variable wind at less than 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost likely. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:10 PM
Moonrise: 5:01 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM
October 22, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Not as cold as previous nights.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: None
Wind: South and southwest wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:09 PM
Moonrise: 5:31 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:54 AM
October 23, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:11 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Decreasing cloudiness. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 42 IL ~ 38 to 42 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Unlikely
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:02 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:54 AM
October 24, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: No
Wind: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:06 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 PM Full
Moonset: 6:56 AM
October 25, 2018
Thursday forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: None
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 7:09 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:59 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge.
This is the rain forecast today through Monday evening.
Our region would only receive rain Friday into Friday night.
Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?
Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Rain chances Friday will be the main topic.
- Dry Saturday and Sunday.
A reminder, I am at my nephews wedding today through Saturday.
I will keep everything updated, but I am in a different time zone. The videos and long range graphics will be posted as soon as I receive them. The times could vary by an hour or so vs my normal schedule.
A rather tranquil weather day ahead of us. It will be cool with below normal temperatures (again). Our cool streak will continue. Those who love autumn must be happy with the weather forecast!
We did have frost around the area this morning. The coldest temperatures were across portions of southern Illinois.
We will see clouds increase tonight and the winds may pick up a bit. I do not expect frost tonight or Friday morning.
The clouds will signal an approaching storm system that will spread rain chances back into the region.
The big question has been the timing of the rain event.
At this time, it still appears that Friday afternoon into Friday evening is the peak time to expect some rain showers on radar.
This is not anticipated to be a heavy rain event. Totals of 0.05″ to 0.30″ are anticipated. Some guidance suggests some areas may receive no rainfall.
For now, I have the going forecast as a band of rain moving west to east across the region. It will begin in southeast Missouri and then spread eastward.
Those with outdoor activities Friday afternoon and evening will want to check the latest forecasts and radars.
Here is the high resolution 3K NAM model guidance.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic. Click animation to enlarge.
Saturday and Sunday will be pleasant. Saturday will be a bit warmer than Sunday.
Frost is possible Sunday night.
I had considered frost for Saturday night, but it appears the winds may stay up just enough to prevent frost formation. I will continue to monitor the guidance.
Sunday night should be cold enough for widespread frost. Low temperatures in the 34 to 38 degree range are likely with light wind conditions. Patchy fog would also be a concern.
If you have sensitive outdoor plants, then you will want to monitor the latest forecast numbers for Sunday night.
Monday through Wednesday will be dry. Below normal temperatures are likely to continue well into next week.
There will be some moderation in temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps some 70 degree readings next Thursday. Still several days to monitor that part of the forecast.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
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Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 665
Tonight’s first guest is the Chief Meteorologist at WJHG-TV in Panama City, Florida. Chris Smith, welcome!
Also joining us is the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS in Tallahassee, Florida. Tom Johnstone, welcome! In addition, Ginger Zee, the Chief Meteorologist at ABC News, offers her insight and her harrowing story at the coast.
Up next is weather photographer Doug Kiesling, who shared some amazing footage taken from the coast. Storm chaser Mark Sudduth also shares his story from where he rode out the storm in Panama City and Mexico Beach as well as discusses his GoPro video from Mexico Beach. Storm Chaser Brett Adair joins WeatherBrains and discusses his amazing and life-threatening story from Mexico Beach. The Former Director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Read, also stops by and discusses Michael and it’s impact.
In addition, also joining us and adding to the all-star guest line-up is Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at WPLG-TV in Miami Florida. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University also drops by the show. Furthermore, Leslie Chapman-Henderson, President and CEO of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, as well as fellow FLASH associate and VP Mike Rimoldi, both stop by WeatherBrains.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Devastation along the Florida Gulf Coast after historic Hurricane Michael
- Discussion on Michael’s storm surge and historical comparisons
- Building code discussion along the Florida Gulf Coast
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
