We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Very mild temperatures for October.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
October 17, 2016
Monday: Windy. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Very warm with near record highs.
What impact is expected? Winds could gust above 35 mph from time to time.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range. Near record high temperatures.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-30 mph. Gusts to 40 mph on rivers, lakes, and open areas.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:13 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Monday Night – Windy. Gusts above 40 mph possible. Mostly clear sky conditions. A few passing clouds. Mild for October.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: South winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts above 40 mph possible
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 18, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some clouds in the afternoon. Near record high temperatures.
What impact is expected? Breezy conditions on lakes and rivers.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A couple of light rain showers can’t be ruled out as moisture starts to increase in front of the incoming frontal boundary.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Low confidence on shower development Tuesday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a couple of showers developing on Tuesday night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 19, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Warm. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. A frontal boundary will be near our region on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on just how fast the front will advance into our forecast counties. I will at least mention rain chances. Perhaps better chances for Wednesday night and Thursday. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west/northward as the front advances through the area. Winds will become north and northwest behind the front. Winds will be south and southwest ahead of the front. Wind speeds of 7-14 mph. Gusty along the front.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 p.m.
UV index will be 3-5.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Turning cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Rain will be possible on Wednesday night..
.
October 20, 2016
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Rain should end from west to east through the day.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range. Falling temperatures possible during the late morning and afternoon.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60% (decreasing rain chances during the afternoon and evening)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. Precipitation should end from west to east through the day.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in this forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is a possibility. This could cause problems for outdoor events.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:10 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4.
Moonrise will be at 10:26 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:58 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Thursday Night – Showers ending. Clearing with just a few clouds. Cooler. Autumn air returns.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a few remaining early evening showers
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming calm after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely the precipitation will have ended.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 21, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny and cooler. Autumn air.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:08 p.m.
UV index will be 4-5
Moonrise will be at 11:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:54 p.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 2-4 mph. Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 22, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Autumn like temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m. Last Quarter
.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 23, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A little warmer. Breezy?
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: East at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m. Waning Crescent.
.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Record high temperatures?
- Windy weather
- Strong cold front mid-week
- Much cooler air is on the way
The big weather story, for Monday and Tuesday, will be near record warmth across our region. You can expect high temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 80’s on both days. Just wow. Our mild October continues.
How mild has October been? My October forecast was for above normal temperatures. That has certainly been the case, thus far.
Widespread above normal temperatures since the first of the month.
Here is the temperature departure map for our region. This is since the first of the month.
Our warm weather will come to an end by Wednesday night and Thursday.
A strong cold front will sweep across our region during that time period. The front will enter our northwest counties on Wednesday and clear our region by Thursday morning/afternoon. The front will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms.
You can see the front via the dew point forecast map.
Here are the dew points for Wednesday evening. Moist air over our local area. Dew points well into the 60’s. That is high for this time of the year.
Moving forward to Thursday morning. Notice the lower dew points behind the cold front? Drier air.
Here is the dew point map for Friday morning. Cool and dry air blankets our local area.
It now appears that the front will not stall over our region. There has been some uncertainty regarding that topic. It now appears that the front should continue to push east of our area on Thursday. That will mean decreasing precipitation chances by late Thursday morning into the afternoon. Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday night into Sunday.
An area of low pressure might push through the Missouri and Ohio Valleys by Sunday. It appears this could cause some increase in clouds, but may end up being precipitation free. I will keep an eye on it.
Here is the GFS model guidance. GFS is a model. Green represents showers and perhaps some storms along the front. It is possible that most of the precipitation will fall behind the cold front. Not all that uncommon for fall. I am not anticipating severe weather.
Here is the GFS map for Wednesday morning. The GFS attempts to paint some scattered showers in our region. At this time, I have placed a small chance of rain in the Wednesday forecast. I think the better chances will hold off until Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Let’s keep an eye on it.
This next map is for Wednesday night. This is when the higher rain probabilities should arrive.
This next map is for 1 pm on Thursday. You can see the rain starting to push eastward.
This final map is for Thursday night. Rain will have pushed off to the east by Thursday afternoon or evening. I will need to monitor the exact timing of the front.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″-0.50″ will be possible along the front. Locally heavier totals are a possibility. It does appear that most areas should pick up some measurable rainfall from this event. We have been averaging below normal in the precipitation department (since the beginning of the month).
Much cooler air will arrive by Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday, assuming the front continues to push eastward, may remain in the sixties. Cool/autumn air. Some of the guidance hints at upper 30’s on Friday night. I will keep an eye on that part of the forecast. It won’t be long and we will be talking about frost.
Here is the 500 mb wind field map for later this week. Notice the dip? That is the jet diving southward. This will help deliver cooler air.
500 mb’s is about 18,000′ aloft.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
Rainfall totals for the Wednesday and Thursday event. This might shift around a bit. You get the general idea. Broad-brushed outlook.
Click the image to enlarge.
.
Monday morning low temperatures
.
.
Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
Highs could reach into the upper 80’s in some locations!
.
.
.
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday: Monitoring for another cold front. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
Friday and Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
.
I did update rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday/Friday.
.
No major concerns.
.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
