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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
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October 16, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance of light showers from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, into western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly afternoon)
Wind: North 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Unlikely
Wind: West and southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:17 PM
Moonrise: 2:04 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM
October 17, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. A bit warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost possible. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium.
Wind: North and northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:15 PM
Moonrise: 2:46 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:10 AM
October 18, 2018
Thursday forecast: Mosty sunny. Milder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 59 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds overnight. A few showers possible after 12 AM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered late at night.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: East wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways possible late. That would mainly be across southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Moonrise: 3:24 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:01 AM
October 19, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 58 IL ~ 55 to 58 KY ~ 56 to 58 TN ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely before midnight. Diminishing chances late at night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 44 TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% to 60% TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Rain ending from northwest to southeast overnight.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:58 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:00 AM
October 20, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost and fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
October 21, 2018
Sunday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Frost possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 5:01 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge.
This is today through next Monday night.
Most of this falls late Thursday night into Friday night.
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Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Chilly temperatures
- Frost chances
- Friday rain chances
- Storm system around Halloween
I am running a bit behind today. Today is a travel day for me. Tomorrow, as well.
It was a chilly morning across the region. Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois dipped into the middle to upper 30’s. Western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee were mainly in the 38 to 44-degree range.
Some areas even had some light frost on the pumpkins! Clouds help keep frost to a minimum.
The weather today will be on the cool side. Most areas should reach into the lower and middle 50’s. If the clouds remain thick, then some spots could be a bit cooler.
Here is what the Hrrr model guidance is showing for afternoon highs.
A couple of showers are possible today across the Missouri Bootheel and then along and south of the Kentucky/Tennessee State line. This would mainly be during the afternoon hours. North of that line should remain mostly dry.
The Hrrr model guidance shows a few showers. This is the 4 PM image(future-cast radar).
Bottom line, perhaps a few showers this afternoon.
Wednesday into Thursday will be dry and cool. Frost is possible Wednesday night. Temperatures will likely dip into the middle to upper 30’s across portions of the region. Perhaps not as cold from the Missouri Bootheel into and into most of western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.
Coldest temperatures would be from Cape Girardeau, Missouri towards Golconda, Illinois, and then into the Owensboro area of western Kentucky.
Elsewhere, lows will range from 38 to 44 degrees.
Another cold front arrives late Thursday night into Friday night.
At this time, it appears the rain will end by Saturday morning. I know many of you have outdoor events.
At this time, thunderstorms appear unlikely. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Click to enlarge images.
Time-stamp upper left.
GFS
Here is the second model. This one is the GFS.
It also shows Saturday as a dry day. Cool temperatures.
The EC model guidance shows the same. Rain moves into the region Friday and ends by Saturday.
Green and grey would be rain.
Six-hour rain totals ending at 7 PM Friday
Six-hour rain totals ending at 7 AM Saturday
Sunday and Monday should be dry, as well.
Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.
Click to enlarge this graphic.
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The September forecast has been updated.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
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Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 663
Joining us as our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a hydrologist in the Research Applications Lab at NCAR. He has a background in hydrology, geology and computer science. In graduate school, he found a happy marriage of these in hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and more recently atmospheric modeling. Ethan Gutmann, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Should we re-do hurricane classification?
- Ethan’s hobby of mountain climbing
- U. S. Weather Roundup
- Remnants of Hurricane Rosa entering SW United States
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
