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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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October 15, 2016
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Some increase in clouds over our northern counties after midnight. Patchy fog possible. Mild temperatures for October.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring rain to our north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:13 a.m. Full moon.
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October 16, 2016
Sunday: Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny over most of the area. A few clouds from time to time. Northern counties may experience some cloud cover. Disturbance passing to our north. Isolated (if any at all) shower/storm chance from Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. It may remain dry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor the storm system to our north.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Small chance for a few showers over the northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Very mild temperatures for October.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph. Gustst to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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October 17, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Very warm with near record highs. Windy.
What impact is expected? Winds could gust above 35 mph from time to time.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range. Near record high temperatures.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-30 mph. Gusts to 40 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:13 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions. A few passing clouds. Mild for October.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 18, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny during the morning. Perhaps some clouds in the afternoon. Near record high temperatures.
What impact is expected? Breezy conditions on lakes.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Not expecting precipitation.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. At this time, it appears Tuesday night will be dry. I will be watching a cold front pushing southeastward through the State of Missouri.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor rain chances in case the front speeds up.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Warm. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. A frontal boundary will be near our region on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on just how fast the front will advance into my forecast counties. I will at least mention rain chances. Perhaps better chances for Wednesday night and Thursday.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west/northward as the front advances through the area. Winds will become north and northwest behind the front. Winds will be south and southwest ahead of the front. Wind speeds of 7-14 mph. Gusty along the front.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Turning cooler than recent nights.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. A frontal boundary near our region could spark precipitation.
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October 20, 2016
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Cooler than recent days. A cold front will be in our region. Cooler behind the front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is a possibility. This could cause problems for outdoor events.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:10 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4.
Moonrise will be at 10:26 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:58 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – A few clouds. Cooler. Autumn air returns.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely the precipitation will have ended.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 21, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny and cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:08 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6
Moonrise will be at 11:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:54 p.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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October 22, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Autumn like temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m. Last Quarter
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 23, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A little warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: East at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: East at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- WELL above normal temperatures
- Monitoring a potential stalled front towards Wednesday/Thursday
Who asked for warm weather? Whoever asked for it should be quite happy with this forecast. Temperatures on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday will rise into the 80’s. As a matter of fact, a few locations may top out in the upper 80’s. Imagine that. Near record high temperatures. Personally, I am ready for fall weather to stick around. Seems hard to come by, thus far.
Check out the isobar map for Monday. Isobars are equal lines of pressure. The tighter they are packed together the stronger the wind gusts will be. Notice how they are packed together over Missouri and Illinois on Sunday and Monday.
Gusty winds can be expected on Sunday and Monday. Wind gusts could top 20-30 mph from time to time.
Here is the wind gust map for Sunday afternoon. Winds on Monday might be stronger.
Here is the wind forecast map for Monday afternoon. I would not be surprised if gusts topped 30 mph. It is that time of the year. Click image for a larger view. Scale is on the right side of the image.
We should maintain mostly dry weather through Tuesday. I am monitoring a disturbance that will pass to our north on Saturday night (late) and Sunday. It now appears that the bulk of the rain chances will also stay to our north. I did mentioned a 10%-20% chance for a stray shower/storm towards the Mt Vernon, Illinois area later tonight and on Sunday. Odds favor it remaining dry.
A strong cold front is forecast to move into our region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The timing of this front will need to be monitored. Some of the guidance brings it into our region as early as Tuesday. Other data, is slower in bringing the front into our local area.
Here is the dew point map for 7 pm on Tuesday. Notice the sharp cut off between the dew points in the 60’s vs 40’s? That is where the front should be situated. The front will be pushing south and east on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Dew points are a measure of moisture at the ground level. Dew points in the sixties would be above normal for this time of the year.
Look at the Wednesday dew point map. Notice how the higher dew points are aligned from west to east? That is the front starting to stall over our region. If the front stalls then our rain chances will increase. I will be monitoring this part of the forecast.
Here is the Thursday dew point map (image below). You can see the front remains in our region. The lower dew points remain mostly to our north and west.
The cold front will be accompanied by increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Model guidance has been all over the place with this system. Many of the guidance packages have been showing a moisture starved front. I have been leaning towards at least some showers and thunderstorms.
The front might stall over our region on Wednesday and Thursday. IF the front does stall then shower and storm chances will be with us for several days. Locally heavy rain could also occur. Let’s keep an eye on it. The confidence level on that system is medium.
Let’s take a look at rainfall totals on the GFS model vs the GEM model. Two different models.
The Canadian GEM model shows locally heavy rain in our region. Most of this would fall on Wednesday into Thursday night. Again, this will be dependent on the front stalling over our local area.
The GEM model paints the highest totals from southeast Missouri into the St Louis, Missouri area.
Just one models opinion. Let’s keep an eye on trends.
The GFS model, on the other hand, paints the higher totals over our region. Again, just this models opinion. I will be monitoring the guidance for trends. Will the front stall? Will the front keep moving? Still a question.
The EC guidance is showing the heaviest precipitation to our north and west. It matches the GEM. EC guidance has done well over the past few weeks.
Cooler air will follow the fronts passage. Perhaps more seasonal temperatures vs our well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures might fall on Wednesday. That would happen behind the cold front.
It has been dry over the past 30 days. Let’s take a look at the percent of normal precipitation for the past 30 days. Low numbers for our local area. Some locations have only received 15%-25% of their normal rainfall.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
Rainfall this week will be highly dependent on the placement of a frontal boundary from Tuesday night through Friday. If the front stalls over our region then someone could receive locally heavy rain. There remains some question on whether the front will stall. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Here is the official rainfall forecast from NOAA. I suspect there will be changes as we move forward.
Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: A chance for thunderstorms over our northern counties. Perhaps showers vs storms. Can’t rule out lightning. Most areas will remain dry.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday: Monitoring for another cold front. Storms are possible, but confidence this far out is low.
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Adjusting rain chances for the Tuesday into Friday time frame.
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
