Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

If a link is broken then please let me know. Beaudodson@usawx.com

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

Quick Glance

3 PM future-cast radar update

I continue to monitor thunderstorms that are forming in western Missouri.

A line of storms will form over the coming hours from Illinois to Missouri. It will then move east and southeast.

A few of the storms could be strong. Heavy rain is likely in some areas.

Your seven-day outlook has some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon/night. Another chance of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms on Sunday/Monday.

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Tuesday: Lightning is possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Isolated hail is possible. Heavy rain.
Wednesday: No
Thursday: No
Friday: No
Saturday: No.
Sunday: Monitor updates. Thunderstorms, some heavy, are possible Sunday into Monday.
Monday: Severe thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes: Tuesday afternoon and night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Low risk. A few hail reports are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated: Heavy rain Tuesday night. Some areas will top an inch.
ill tWhe heat index rise above 100 degrees? No.
Is Frost in the forecast? No.
Is snow or ice in the forecast? No.

Friday through Monday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes: Lightning is likely on Sunday and Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday for the potential of strong thunderstorms (some could be severe).
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible on Sunday and Monday.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? No.
Is Frost in the forecast? Yes. Frost is possible late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Is snow or ice in the forecast? No.

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

What changes might occur in the forecast?

The chance of rain on Saturday and Saturday night will need to be monitored.

The chance of severe weather will need to be monitored on Sunday/Monday.

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October 15, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. Increasing chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Increasing to 60% after 4 PM. A couple of afternoon and evening storms could produce dime to nickel size hail.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest increasing to 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered AM. Becoming numerous during the afternoon and evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few reports of hail.
What action is required: Outdoor events need to monitor the chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not during the morning. Monitor radars during the afternoon and have a plan B.
UV Index: 3 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms are likely the first half of the night. Ending west to east. Becoming windy. A couple of evening storms could produce dime to nickel size hail.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 38° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west and northwest. Increasing to 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few reports of hail. Flooded roadways.
What action is required: Those with outdoor plans should monitor the chance of lightning. Avoid flooded roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 6:18 PM
Moonrise: 7:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:33 AM

October 16, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A few morning clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clear. Patchy fog is possible. Patchy frost. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° SE MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 3 to 6 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Patchy frost.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle in areas with fog. Sensitive plants may be impacted by temperatures in the 30s.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:17 PM
Moonrise: 8:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:32 AM

October 17, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: A few morning clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny. Cooler. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind conditions.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Clear. Patchy fog is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:16 PM
Moonrise: 8:52 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:33 AM

October 18, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind conditions.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds late. I will monitor showers to our south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 20%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Moonrise: 9:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:34 AM

Saturday: LOW confidence. Partly sunny. A 30% chance of rain showers. Highs in the 73 to 76-degree range. Cloudy Saturday night. A 30% chance of showers. Low around 55 to 60 degrees. South winds during the day and night at 8 to 16 mph.

Sunday: Medium confidence. Increasing clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. The timing of the showers and thunderstorms will need to be monitored and updated. It is a bit early for specifics. Locally heavy rain and intense storms will be possible along the cold front. That may hold off until Sunday night/Monday. Monitor updates. Highs in the 74 to 78-degree range. Cloudy Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low around 58 to 64 degrees. South winds during the day and night at 8 to 16 mph.

Monday: Medium confidence. Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be heavy. Monitor updates. Highs in the 74 to 78-degree range. Cloudy early. A few remaining showers. Low around 40 to 45 degrees. South winds during the day and night at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. West and northwest wind Monday night at 7 to 14 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click the image to enlarge it.

Current conditions.

School Bus Stop Forecast

And the afternoon bus stop forecast
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Click the graphic to view a larger size.

Weekend Camping Forecast

Rain chances ramp up Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.40″
Patchy frost is possible Thursday morning.
Locally heavy rain and intense thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday. The timing of that event will need to be fine-tuned. Monitor updates.

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Agriculture Forecast
Click the graphic to view a larger size.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tuesday through next Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Organized severe weather is unlikely. Lightning is the concern. A few reports of dime to nickel size hail will also be possible. There is a low-end risk of a severe thunderstorm warning for hail.

A stronger storm system will arrive on Sunday and Monday. This system will bring strong thunderstorms to the region. I can’t rule out severe weather. Monitor updates moving forward.

October and November weather can and often does produce severe weather. Keep this in mind over the next few weeks.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Severe Weather Risk Graphic (this is not for regular summer storms. This graphic is for severe thunderstorms)

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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A few showers possible on Tuesday AM.
Rain chances ramp up Tuesday afternoon and night. Thunderstorms are possible. A couple of reports of dime to nickel size hail will be possible. Heavy rain for some.
Frost is possible Thursday morning.
I am tracking another front this coming weekend. It may bring strong thunderstorms to the region by Sunday or Monday.

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Weather
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Advice:

Sensitive plants may be impacted by overnight lows on Thursday morning. Middle to upper 30s by Thursday morning.

Monitor updates concerning a stronger storm system on Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms will be the concern.

Weather Forecast Analysis.

Two main weather topics over the coming ten days.

The first one will be a cold front on Tuesday afternoon and night. There will be just enough moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals of 0.00″ to 0.40″ are anticipated. Thunderstorms can produce much higher totals. Keep that in mind.

The good news is that I am not forecasting a significant severe thunderstorm event. There may be enough instability for a few reports of dime to nickel size hail.

Timing? Give or take. Here is one of the future-cast radars (see more below).

Here is a sounding.

What is a sounding. Pretend you took a slice of the atmosphere, at a given point of time, and analyzed it. A slice of pie, if you will.

That is an atmospheric sounding.

This sounding is for 7 PM Tuesday evening.

CAPE is energy for storms to tap into. Decent CAPE for mid-October. Around 700 to 1000 joules. Enough for storms.

The freezing level is over 10,000′. Not extremely low. No thigh either. The low the freezing level the higher the chance of hail.

Lapse rates (how fast does the temperature drop as you move higher into the atmosphere) will be high. That is one reason hail is possible.

Check out the upper level wind speeds. Those numbers by the purple dots are in knots. A 157 knot jet stream!

Click to enlarge the sounding.

Lapse rates are high. Lapse rates show you the rate at which temperatures drop as you move higher into the atmosphere. Higher numbers can be an indicator of a hail threat.

These orange and red colors are decent lapse rates. This is on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

4 PM

7 PM

CAPE values are not all that impressive. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Lapse rates will be between 4oo and 800. Perhaps locally higher.

You don’t actually need high lapse rates during the autumn and winter months to have a severe weather threat. It is just one indicator.

The lower CAPE rule is best used during winter vs autumn.

NAM model

The Hrrr model shows higher CAPE values. This will need to be monitored.

You can see the dew points will be on the rise on Tuesday evening. Dewpoints are one way to measure moisture in the atmosphere. Dewpoints in the 60s are decent for October.

Temperatures will rise ahead of the front. That is because of southerly winds.

Here is the 12-hour rainfall map. This does not appear to be a heavy rain event.

It will turn colder behind the front. Another chance of frost arrives on Thursday morning when lows will dip into the middle to upper 30s.

Here is the NAM model low-temperature forecast for Thursday morning.

The next topic will be a stronger storm system that arrives this weekend into early next week.

There has been a fly in the ointment over the last 24 hours.

The EC model guidance is starting to show another system on Saturday. Confidence in this, for now at least, is low.

The bulk of the rain will be to our south on Saturday. There is, however, a stream of moisture into our region. Again, confidence is low. I am hoping to have a better handle on this by Wednesday night.

The GFS model guidance shows this. Complete different ideas on both models.

Let’s look at the model ensembles. EC model and GFS model.

Ensemble model runs are the same model but constantly ran through the computer over and over again. They start with slightly different parameters. The more that agree the higher the chance of verification.

Numerous EC runs are showing rain on Saturday.

GFS, however, has fewer solutions that show rain.

GFS keeps the rain further south.

For now, I have a few showers in the forecast on Saturday. Subject to adjustments. Low confidence.

The second system arrives on Sunday/Monday. There is high confidence in the late weekend system.

Moisture will be pulled northward from the Gulf of Mexico beginning on Saturday and in earnest on Sunday and Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms will form along a strong cold front by Sunday afternoon night into Monday. The timing will need to be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Some of the thunderstorms could be strong. Monitor updates.

Remember, severe weather is not uncommon during October and November.

Let me show you that system. This is the EC model guidance.

You can see the low in northern Minnesota/norther Wisconsin and Canada. A trailing cold front will sweep through our region with a band of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

This next graphic is the 850 MB winds. These are low-level winds. The low-level jet. I monitor the low-level jet when considering the chance of severe thunderstorms.

A strong low-level jet can increase the chance of severe storms.

The chart is indicating winds above 40+ knots. Sufficient for thunderstorms.

This system is still several days away. Thus, monitor updates moving forward.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

Here is the 500 MB wind speed. This is higher up in the atmosphere. You can see how the jet stream dives from Montana into Colorado and eventually Texas. It then makes a curve northeast into the Missouri Valley and eventually the great lakes.

That is the trough of low pressure. A disturbance in the atmosphere. This will spread moisture northward into our region.

Here is the EC CAPE map. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

Higher CAPE numbers usually indicate a greater chance of severe thunderstorms. We will have to see what time this system pushes through our region.

It is early in the morning then perhaps the severe risk will be a bit lower. If it is during the late morning and afternoon then the severe weather chances would increase.

During the autumn and winter months, you only need 100+ CAPE joules to have a chance of severe weather.

A bit early to know how this plays out. Monitor updates.

The EC model is showing less CAPE than it was 48 hours ago. Whether there is a trend or not will need to be monitored.

Also, this graphic is for 7 AM on Monday. That is not the best time for severe weather in our region. We usually have a lull from 6 AM to 9 AM time-frame. Not always, but usually.

The timing of the front will be important.

Frost

Frost is a possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Mid to upper 30s are likely.

Here are the WPC forecast graphics for the six to ten and eight to fourteen-day period. This is for precipitation and temperatures.

Darker colors equal a higher chance of it happening. Deep red means a high chance that temperatures will be above normal. Dark blue means a high chance that temperatures will be below normal.

The light green colors represent a lower end chance of above-normal rainfall. Dark green means a high chance of precipitation being above normal.

The yellow/orange color means a high chance that precipitation will be below normal.

The 6 to 10-day outlook.

Precipitation

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Temperatures

And the 8 to 14-day outlook.

Precipitation

Temperatures

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.

The WRF model (does well with storms)

Hrrr high-resolution model future-cast radar.

NAM-3K high-resolution model future-cast radar.

Click animations to enlarge them. Time-stamp upper left.

NAM

GFS model guidance.

Tuesday system

Weekend system

.These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long-range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I hire BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

The long-range video does cover our region.

There may be some differences in the videos vs my forecast thoughts. Keep that in mind.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Long Range Video

The Missouri Vall

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Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click graphics to enlarge them

Key Points:

The quieter pattern throughout the week for much of the Ag Belt as storm system builds early next week.
We still have a strong cold front which will dump cooler air into the Central and Eastern US mid-late week.
Following this front, the Eastern US will warm up substantially ahead of our next storm system as we continue to feel –AAM influences.
Typhoon recurve still looks to correlate to colder risks beginning following the ~Oct. 20 – 23 system with additional cool shots to close October.
As cold air settles in the east, the pattern likely gets drier late week 2 into week 3.

Weeks 1/2 temperature outlooks:

Week 1:

Week 1 is a balance of a couple cools day to start, and storm-induced warmth days 3-7 across the central US to Midwest and especially the East Coast.
Anticipating from the PNW to the northern Plains to average at cooler, and more averaged out normal conditions further east.
As seen below for week 2, not anticipating any widespread warmth relief due to our next storm date Oct 20-23rd working in (storm-induced warmth ahead of our fronts will be possible).

Week 2:

Models maintain our colder solutions for week 2, favoring the GEFS slightly more vs the EPS in terms of the magnitude of the cold for week 2 in the central US due to Super Typhoon Hagibis recurve influences.
Coastal regions anticipation to remain above normal with more ridging influences in week 2 to week 3.
Takeaway: Given the consistent cooler trends in week 2 and our storm dates, we see no reason to not continue to trend on the cooler side of data for the upcoming week 2 period.

Weeks 1/2 precipitation outlooks:

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers October 12th through October 18th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers October 22nd through the 28th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers October 29th through November 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Fall Outlook

September, October, and November Temperature outlook

.October
Temperature outlook.

Precipitation outlook

November

Click on the image to expand it.

December

Click on the image to expand it.

January

February

March

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BAMwx has released its preliminary winter forecast. Keep in mind, what you really want to know is not covered in a general winter outlook. What you want to know is how much snow or ice will fall. That is not possible to predict.

The best long-range forecasters can do is to tell you above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

This initial winter outlook indicates odds favor above-normal temperatures when everything is averaged out from November into March. That does not mean we won’t have cold weather. It just means when you average all of those months together we could end up above normal.

They indicate above-normal snowfall, as well.

Winter analogs. BAMwx found years that have a pattern similar to what we are currently experiencing. Those are called analogs. We can compare past years with the present.

Their analogs indicate colder than normal across portions of the central and northern United States. They indicate above normal temperatures along the West Coast south and east into Texas.

Blue and purple are below normal (bright green, as well). Yellow and orange are above normal.

Winter Precipitation

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge.

Looking back at last year. None of the models handled last year all that well.

Upper air pattern.

Here is the BAMwx temperature forecast. This covers all of winter. They have us in the above normal temperature zone. Near normal just to our north. For now, they have this marked as a low confidence forecast.

Additional winter forecasts will be posted over the next couple of months. This is the preliminary outlook.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 716

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is is a suggestion of super listener Steve Holmes. He is the Director of Emergency Management for Titan HST and the host of the leading emergency management Show “EM Weekly”. Todd De Voe, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: