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Monthly outlooks. - Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.
The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.
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October 16, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool. Patchy fog and frost possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium risk of light frost
Wind: West and southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:17 PM
Moonrise: 2:04 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM
October 17, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. A bit warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost possible. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 38 to 42 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium.
Wind: North and northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:15 PM
Moonrise: 2:46 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:10 AM
October 18, 2018
Thursday forecast: Mosty sunny. Milder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 59 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds overnight. A slight chance of a shower over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Widely scattered across southeast Missouri.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: East wind at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:14 PM
Moonrise: 3:24 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:01 AM
October 19, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 59 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers ending. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 44 TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Rain ending from northwest to southeast overnight.
Frost Risk: None anticipated
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 6:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:58 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:00 AM
October 20, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Fog and frost are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 4:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:57 AM
October 21, 2018
Sunday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible. Frost possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Frost Risk: Medium
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost. Monitor updates if you have plants that are sensitive to frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:11 PM
Moonrise: 5:01 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge.
This first graphic is the 48-hour rainfall totals forecast.
The greatest chance of rain will be across the southern portions of the region today into this evening.
This second graphic is the seven-day rainfall totals forecast. Another round of rain will be possible Friday into Saturday.
Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?
Need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated lightning today across the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Otherwise, no other concerns.
I am monitoring Friday/Saturday for another cold front. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Open house! December 1, 2018
- November outlook update
- Rain showers
- Falling temperatures today
- Frost potential
- Another cold front Friday/Saturday
The November temperature and precipitation outlook has been updated.
Preliminary November temperature outlook
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Preliminary November precipitation outlook
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
The main weather story over the last 48 hours has been the rain showers and cool temperatures.
We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.
Rainfall totals have varied greatly over the last 48 hours. Our northern counties received less than 0.20″ and portions of western Tennessee have received greater than two inches.
Rain showers will continue today and this evening. The bulk of the rain will fall across the Missouri Bootheel and then into Kentucky and Tennessee. Other areas may see widely scattered showers, as well.
7 AM radar shows plenty of showers in the region. These are streaming northeast.
The national radar view shows that the rain extends all the way into Texas. Those numbers are temperatures. Notice how chilly it is across much of the Central United States.
Check out the regional temperatures (8 AM). Brrr! Warm to our southeast.
A cold front is responsible for the large range of temperatures.
Rain showers will come to an end as we move into this afternoon and evening.
Future-cast radar Hrrr model guidance. This is what the Hrrr model believes radar will look like today.
The time-stamp is located in the upper-left hand corner.
Click to enlarge
Notice how the rain shifts east and southeast with time.
Temperatures today will fall behind the cold front. Some of you will experience your high temperatures before noon!
Here is the future-cast temperatures forecast. This takes us into this afternoon and evening.
Notice how temperatures actually fall during the day.
The next concern will be the risk of frost.
I can’t rule out frost tonight from Perry County, Missouri, northeast towards Jefferson County, Illinois. In and near that area. Temperatures should dip below 40 degrees. Remember, you don’t need freezing temperatures for frost to form.
A frost advisory has been issued for the areas in pink.
If you have sensitive plants, then you will want to monitor temperature forecasts.
For now, the NWS has held off on a frost advisory for tonight. That is because there is low confidence in the frost risk.
Temperatures Tuesday night should remain above the frost point.
A colder night is anticipated Wednesday. Frost is possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A frost advisory appears likely during this time.
Tonight’s low temperatures
Wednesday morning low temperatures
Thursday morning temperatures
I am monitoring rain chances Friday and Saturday.
This is the GFS model guidance rain outlook. This covers Friday and Saturday.
The GFS brings the through the region Friday night. That leaves Saturday dry.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left.
This is the EC model guidance
It shows the 6-hour rain totals ending at 7 PM Friday. It also brings the front through the region Friday and Friday night.
Those with outdoor plans Friday or Saturday will need to monitor updated forecasts.
For now, it appears Saturday will be dry. If the front slows, then that forecast would change. Again, monitor updates.
Let me show you some temperature anomaly maps.
The green and blue are below normal temperatures. The red and orange color are above normal temperatures.
This cool spell may last well into October.
This first map is for the 7-day averages ending October 22nd
Normal high temperatures are around 72 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 44 degrees.
This next one is the temperature anomaly for tomorrow (Tuesday)
This next map is the temperature anomaly map for Friday
This next one is the temperature anomaly map for Tuesday, October 23rd
This next one is the temperature anomaly map for Thursday, October 25th
Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.
Click to enlarge this graphic.
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The September forecast has been updated.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
Preliminary October precipitation outlook
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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook
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Preliminary November temperature outlook
Preliminary November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 663
Joining us as our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a hydrologist in the Research Applications Lab at NCAR. He has a background in hydrology, geology and computer science. In graduate school, he found a happy marriage of these in hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and more recently atmospheric modeling. Ethan Gutmann, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Should we re-do hurricane classification?
- Ethan’s hobby of mountain climbing
- U. S. Weather Roundup
- Remnants of Hurricane Rosa entering SW United States
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Find me on Facebook!
Find me on Twitter!
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
