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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 13, 2016
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. A few late night clouds. Chilly.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-36 degree range. Below normal temperatures.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Light and variable winds at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible (mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois). Above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Quite a few clouds with clearing late. A chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Mild with above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range. Mild.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear early. Perhaps a few clouds after midnight. Mild for November.
What impact is expected? None anticipated, at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Mild. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Windy, at times. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-72 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 7-14 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps some morning clouds. Shower possible before 8 am. Becoming sunny with patchy clouds. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps a few showers before 8 am. I will need to update the timing of the cold front passing through the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- A few clouds on Monday. Slight chance for a shower.
- Mild week ahead
- Cold front on Friday/Friday night
- Showers and storms Friday/Friday night
Most areas experienced a hard freeze on Saturday night. Lows dipped into the middle 20’s at many observation sites.
Here are some of the chilly temperatures from Sunday morning. These are not necessarily the lowest readings.
Drought conditions continue across the region. I do not see any let-up in the drought through at least Thursday. A few spotty showers are possible on Monday afternoon and evening. This would primarily be over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. The vast majority of the region will receive no measurable rain.
Burn bans remain in effect for much of the area. Please use care.
A mild week ahead for the region. You can expect daily high temperatures in the 60’s with perhaps some 70’s by Thursday and Friday.
I am still anticipating a stronger cold front for Friday and Friday night. This system will produce snow over portions of the plains. Our region will remain in the warm sector. That will mean warm conditions, breezy, and a chance for showers and perhaps even thunderstorms. Currently, the threat for severe weather appears minimal. We should, however, monitor trends. Occasionally systems like this can produce severe weather.
Here is the weather map for Friday afternoon and Friday night. Notice the tight isobars. Isobars are equal lines of pressure. When they are tightly packed together you can expect windy conditions.
Here is an example of isobars. This is the Friday system. We should experience gusty winds here. The highest winds, however, will be over the northern plains.
You can see the 996 mb low over Minnesota. Decent system for this time of the year. Blue equals snow. Pink is ice. Green and dark green represents showers and thunderstorms. This snapshot of the storm system is for the 11 pm/12 am Friday night time frame. We will need to monitor the timing of the system. Some of the guidance brings it in faster than other guidance.
Either way, a band of showers and storms will be possible along the front.
You can see from this dew point map how the moisture is pulled northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This is not an impressive plume of higher dew points. It is a rather narrow band.
Dew points from 58 degrees or above are considered sufficient for strong storms. You have to also have other ingredients. CAPE being one of those ingredients. CAPE is basically energy available for thunderstorms. We do have dew points into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s, but we don’t have much in the way of CAPE.
You can picture where the area of low pressure would be on this map. It would be over the Dakota’s and Minnesota. See how the moisture is pulled northward? Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.
Here is the CAPE forecast map
I will keep an eye on the trends.
The weekend is shaping up to be cool and dry. If the front slows then a few remaining showers will be possible on Saturday morning.
Another cold front is possible next week around Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. Plenty of time to monitor that front.
I will begin winter storm forecasts the third or fourth week of November. No snow in the current forecast!
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
I am monitoring a storm system for Friday/Saturday. Low confidence. We just don’t seem to be able to pick up significant rain in our region. The last two months have been dry. Let’s hope Friday’s system will bring some rain. Burn bans continue for many areas.
Here is the official WPC/NOAA forecast map
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals from the weekend system. We shall see.
GFS rainfall totals
GEM rainfall totals
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night through next Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible as a cold front nears the region. I can’t rule out strong storms. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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No major changes. Updated Monday’s shower chances. Updated winds for Friday.
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Monitoring a cold front for Friday. Storms possible.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
