Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

.

.
I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page.  Link to those threads CLICK HERE

Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

..

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

October 13th through October 19th

Current risk:  MONITOR

Current confidence level: Medium confidence in the forecast.

Comments:   I am monitoring the risk of severe weather on Saturday/Saturday night.  It is still a bit early to know if tornadoes will be a concern.  Severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.

.

.

Here is your bus stop forecast.

.
This afternoon

. 

.

Good morning, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend.  The weather was perfect.

We do have some clouds this morning over portions of Missouri and Illinois.  Some of these clouds may drift into my western and northern counties, especially across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  They may not make it into Kentucky/Tennessee.

5 AM Satellite view.

.

A nice day is on tap for the region.  Several days, as a matter of fact.

Temperatures will be well above average today and tomorrow.  Temperatures will remain above average from Wednesday through Saturday, as well.

Most of October has been above-average, thus far.

No significant weather concerns through Friday afternoon.

There could be some patchy fog at night.  This is especially true near bodies of water and in valleys.

A strong cold front will approach the region on Friday night and Saturday.  This front will bring warm temperatures, increasing humidity levels, higher dew points, and thunderstorms.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

There remain some questions on the exact timing of the severe weather threat.  For now, it appears during the day on Saturday and lingers into Saturday night.

The GFS model is slightly faster with the front vs the EC model.  Over the coming days, I will iron out the differences.

Thunderstorms could produce damaging winds and hail.  I will monitor the tornado threat, as well.   There will be some spin in the atmosphere, but forecasting severe weather this many days in advance is complicated.

It typically comes down to the finer details.  I won’t know those for a few more days.

Monitor updates concerning Saturday’s forecast.  If you have outdoor events, then monitor updated forecasts.

Here is the SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday.  We are in a level two out of five risk zone.

I know there are a lot of outdoor events this weekend.

Temperatures will likely surge into the upper 70s and lower 80s ahead of the cold front and then cool into the 60s and 70s behind the front (for high temps).

I do not have any frost or freeze conditions in the seven-day forecast.

Let’s look at the model ensemble temperatures means.

This is over 100 models.  The mean/average temperatures.  Highs and lows.

This is the EC model.

As you can see, we will have a warm week.  Then, behind the weekend cold front, we will see temperatures level off a bit.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

.

** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.

.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

.

Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

.

I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.