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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 11, 2016
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds after midnight. Pleasant autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:21 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
October 12, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Increasing clouds as the day wears on. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. Best chances of rain may hold off until the late afternoon and evening hours. Some disagreement on timing among the different guidance packages. Hoping most of Wednesday will be dry for farmers.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts over 25 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Is severe weather expected? No, but thunderstorms could produce gusty winds in a few locations.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:20 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6 Low to perhaps moderate (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 4:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder. Precipitation should end late Wednesday night from west to east. Some areas may not pick up much in the way of measurable rainfall. Rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.50″ will be possible. The heavier totals would likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming north and northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No, but storms could produce gusty winds over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Have a plan B.
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October 13, 2016
Thursday: Morning clouds giving way to afternoon sun. Cooler. A small chance for a shower before 8 am.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:19 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:56 Waxing Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy early and then increasing clouds late. A chance for a late night shower over southeast Missouri. Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 range
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 14, 2016
Friday: Mostly cloudy. A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially southern counties). There remains some question marks on Friday’s forecast. Some of the guidance paints the best rain chances for the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. This will need to be monitored.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-72 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%-40%. IL ~ 30%-40%. KY ~ 30%-40% . TN ~ 50%-60% (these numbers may change)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates). Bulk of precipitation might remain in AR/TN.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible. I would not cancel plans, but monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:17 p.m.
UV index will be 1-3.
Moonrise will be at 5:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:04 Waxing Gibbous.
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Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. A few showers remaining. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 range
Winds: Southeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 15, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny during the morning. Becoming mostly sunny through the day. Mild temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:13 a.m. Full moon.
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Saturday Night – A few evening clouds. Increasing clouds late. A chance for a shower after 3 am.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-64 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if any at all.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2016
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorms. There remains some question as to coverage of precipitation on Sunday. Some of the guidance shows widespread showers/storms, but other guidance shows limited coverage.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%-50% IL ~ 40%-50% KY ~ 40%-50% TN ~ 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Low
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Sunday Night – Departing clouds. Mild temperatures.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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October 17, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy at times.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:13 a.m.
UV index will be 6-8.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 18, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A thunderstorm possible. Low confidence on the timing of the cold front for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will need to be monitored.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 420%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 7:06 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Tuesday Night – A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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October 19, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: NW at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 7:07 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Some clouds
- Four cold fronts
- Several chances for showers and thunderstorms
A complex weather forecast over the coming days. There remains some differences in the model guidance as to precipitation coverage on Wednesday night, Friday, and Sunday. Each time period will need to be monitored for forecast adjustments.
Wednesday will deliver increasing clouds from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon hours over our far western counties of southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. These showers and storms will push east and southeast on Wednesday night. A few storms could produce lightning and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I suppose an isolated report of strong winds is not out of the question.
Showers will end by Thursday morning. Thursday will be cooler behind the passing cold front. Highs on Thursday will likely remain in the 60’s. Thursday will feel like fall.
Another disturbance approaches our region on Friday. This is where the models diverge. Some of the guidance is indicating widespread showers and storms over southern Missouri into western Tennessee. The guidance shows isolated to scattered precipitation elsewhere. Other guidance shows better coverage for our entire region.
I believe most of our region should experience at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Perhaps greater coverage over the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Rainfall totals from the Wednesday and Friday event will vary considerably. There could be anywhere from 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rainfall where thunderstorms occur. It is possible that some areas pick up little in the way of measurable rainfall. Lower rainfall totals are more likely over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Saturday should be dry and mild.
Another cold front enters our region on Sunday. This front could trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. I have capped precipitation chances at 40%-50%. I will monitor trends in the guidance. This may need to be updated.
Rain should end on Sunday night from west to east.
Monday and Monday night should be dry.
Another cold front arrives on Tuesday or Wednesday. The timing will need to be monitored and updated. This is a strong front with stronger wind fields. It is possible that this front could produce some strong thunderstorms.
The EC guidance shows that front arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS is earlier vs later. Let’s monitor the timing of the front next week.
Strong and gusty winds are possible on Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusts above 30 mph will be possible. This is because of the tight pressure guidance associated with the deep area of low pressure that will pass to our north.
Cooler air will follow that system (cold?).
How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Rainfall totals will vary considerably across our region from Wednesday into next Wednesday. Heavier totals west vs east.
Click image for a larger view. Graphic is from weatherbell.com
Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
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Thursday morning low temperatures.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: A few thunderstorms are possible (mainly Wednesday night). Organized severe weather is unlikely. A few storms could, however, produce gusty winds. There is a marginal risk of a severe storm over the northern and western parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Thursday and Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday and Friday night: A few thunderstorms are possible. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely. Low confidence on Sunday’s rain potential. It may hold off until Monday.
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Adjusted rain probabilities
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
