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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 11, 2016
Veterans Day
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 12, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps a few morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? Patchy morning frost. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Widespread frost likely. A freeze possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends. Freeze possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 29-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. A nice autumn day.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible. A freeze is possible. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Small chance for a shower. Mild.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range. Mild.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Small chance for showers.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm weather
- Cool nights
- Frost Saturday morning?
- Frost/freeze on Sunday morning?
- When will it rain?
If I told you we were going to have more dry weather, would you be surprised? Probably not. We have had almost two months of non-active weather. No significant change anticipated through most of next week.
Temperatures Saturday morning might dip low enough for some light frost. Colder air on Saturday night might lead to a widespread frost. I can’t rule out a freeze.
Paducah did not break their record for the latest date for 32 degrees. Paducah dipped to 30-32 degrees on Thursday morning. Close! I would have liked to have seen the record broken. We have made it this far.
Temperatures over the coming days will be a mix of below and above normal. Mostly above normal readings. November will likely go down as a warmer than normal month.
I am watching a cold front for next Friday and Saturday. Models keep pushing the arrival of the front further and further back. The system might bring some showers or thunderstorms into our area. Another system the following Wednesday or Thursday. Long way off. Confidence, of course, is low.
Here is the GFS map for next Saturday. Each model run shows less and less rainfall. The second map is for around Thanksgiving
Click to enlarge
Then the Thanksgiving system. Low confidence, of course. Too far out.
No real sign of the drought breaking. Drought conditions continue to spread across our region. Burn bans are in effect for many counties.
Here are the month to date temperature anomalies. We will end November with widespread above normal temperatures (when averaged out for the month).
The CFS model is showing above normal temperatures well into December. Not saying there won’t be cold shots. Just showing you what the CFS model is predicting. It’s a model. Time will tell.
Here is the latest drought monitor index. Drought conditions continue to worsen with time.
Click image to enlarge.
Zoomed in map.
Soil moisture anomalies
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
No rain expected Wednesday through at least Monday. Small risk for a light shower on Monday night/Tuesday. Nothing of significance.
I am watching a system for next Friday/Saturday. Perhaps some rain or thunderstorms. Low confidence.
Here is the ten day GFS rainfall totals. Thin pickings.
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday nightt through next Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No significant changes.
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.Frost and freeze conditions are possible Friday Night/Saturday morning and Saturday night/Sunday morning
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
