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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 10, 2016
Thursday Night: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Cool, but not as cold as Wednesday night.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west and southwest at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 11, 2016
Veterans Day
Friday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds possible. Cool. A weak cold front will approach from the north. There could be a band of clouds with the front.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest and north at 7-14 mph. Winds might be gusty at times. Gusts to 14-18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy lost frost.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph early during the evening. Winds dying down during the evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 12, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps a few morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? Patchy morning frost. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Widespread frost likely. A freeze possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends. Freeze possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Morning frost. Mostly sunny. A nice autumn day.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible. A freeze is possible. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Small chance for a shower. Mild.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range. Mild.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 6-8
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Small chance for showers.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm weather
- Cool nights
- Frost Saturday morning?
- Frost/freeze on Sunday morning?
- When will it rain?
More calm weather for the region. Calm also means no rain. We need rain. The last sixty days have delivered WELL below normal precipitation totals. Drought conditions will worsen. No end in sight for the drought. There is some chance for showers late next week. Perhaps some thunderstorms. I will monitor the severe weather threat potential. Too far out for certainty.
Temperatures over the coming days will be a mix of above and below normal readings. High temperatures on Friday will rise into the 60’s and highs on Saturday will remain in the 50’s. Overnight lows on Friday morning won’t be as cold as Thursday morning. Many areas dipped into the lower and middle 30’s on Thursday morning. Widespread frost was reported.
Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 60 degrees. Normal low temperatures are in the lower 40’s.
Some frost will be possible on Friday night/Saturday morning. Widespread frost and/or freeze conditions are anticipated for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Keep that in mind. Lows will dip into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Don’t forget, we normally have some isolated colder readings.
Dry weather is anticipated through at least Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Small rain chances Monday night and Tuesday. Light rain, if any at all.
I am watching a stronger cold front, as i mentioned above, towards next Thursday/Friday/Saturday. I will need to monitor the timing. Windy conditions are possible with the system, as well. Models are taking a deep low well to our north. That will tighten the pressure gradient. That spells windy conditions. Typical for the fall months.
A few days ago this looked like a big rain maker. What have I said recently about this subject? In the long range the models are bullish on decent rain events. As we draw closer to the time frame the model starts to show less and less rainfall. It appears to be happening, once again, with the system late next week. The drought will linger.
First, there is a weak system on Monday night and Tuesday that will move through our region. I did include a 10%-20% for a light shower with it.
Here is the system for late next week. It first appeared to be a Wednesday or Thursday system. Then a Thursday or Friday system. Now the model is showing Friday or Saturday. You get the idea. Let’s keep an eye on it. Not overly impressed, at this point.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
No rain expected Wednesday through at least Monday.
Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday nightt through next Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No significant changes.
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.Frost and freeze conditions are possible Friday Night/Saturday morning and Saturday night/Sunday morning
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
