We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
.
October 9, 2016
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: Lows in the 43-46
Winds: Nearly calm weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset will be at 6:24 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:15 p.m. and moonset will be at — Waxing Gibbous.
..
October 10, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Some high clouds. Pleasant temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: Light east winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:23 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate.
Moonrise will be at 3:00 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
.
Monday Night – A few clouds. Otherwise, mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 range
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 11, 2016
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Pleasant temperatures. Autumn weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:59 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:21 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8 Moderate
Moonrise will be at 3:42 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Pleasant temperatures.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: Lows in the 53-56 range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 12, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. A few showers and thunderstorms developing over southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:20 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6 Low to perhaps moderate (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 4:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
.
Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Have a plan B.
.
October 13, 2016
Thursday: Decreasing clouds. Partly sunny. Cooler. A small chance for a shower.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:19 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:56 Waxing Gibbous.
.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-52 range
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 14, 2016
Friday: Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-72 degree range.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:17 p.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Low to moderate.
Moonrise will be at 5:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:04 Waxing Gibbous.
.
Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 range
Winds: Southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 15, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:13 a.m. Full moon.
.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-64 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
October 16, 2016
Sunday: Partly sunny. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Low
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
.
Sunday Night – Some clouds. A chance for a shower.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 range
Winds: Southwest winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm weather
- Showers possible by Wednesday or Wednesday night
- Monitoring rain chances on Thursday and Friday
Our nice fall weather continues. I don’t see any weather problems over the next couple of days. Overnight lows will dip into the 40’s and 50’s. Daytime highs will jump into the 70’s. Plenty of sunshine, as well. Some passing high clouds can be expected.
Our next weather maker will approach from the west on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. A cold front will accompany the disturbance. This means increasing southwest winds and that will deliver increasing moisture. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front.
The best chance for precipitation should arrive on Wednesday afternoon (starting over our western counties in southeast Missouri) into Wednesday night.
The front will move through the area on Wednesday night. This should bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, it appears that most of Thursday should be dry. Perhaps a few remaining showers before 8 am. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.
Another disturbance will move into the area on Thursday night and Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will once again ramp up.
Saturday is shaping up to be dry. A few of the guidance packages indicate small shower chances early Saturday morning. I will keep an eye on that part of the forecast.
Another system Approaches on Sunday. That will mean more shower and thunderstorm chances. We could use this rain. It has been quite dry over the past few weeks. Rainfall totals over the next seven days could top two inches for some of our counties.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
.
Dry weather through Tuesday night. Rain chances will increase by Wednesday and Wednesday night. I am also monitoring Thursday and Friday for a few showers and storms. Lower confidence on the Thursday and Friday rain chances.
This first graphic represents rainfall totals for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This next graphic is the total rainfall expected for the next seven days.
.
Monday morning low temperatures
.
.
Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
.
Tuesday morning low temperatures.
..
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not in the forecast.
Wednesday through Friday: A few scattered storms can’t be ruled out. Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
.
Fresh update for the upcoming week.
.
No major concerns.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
