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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Best chances for showers would be east of the Mississippi River.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radar.
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October 1, 2016
Saturday: Mostly cloudy during the morning. We may experience some clearing late in the day. Showers are possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Small hail possible if a few storms form. Cold air funnels possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-75 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:36 p.m.
UV index will be 0-5. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night – Some clouds. Patchy fog. Perhaps clearing late. Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated, if any. Precipitation should be ending on Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some showers will be possible.
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October 2, 2016
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Hopefully the upper level low will have moved off to the east and northeast by Sunday. This will need to be monitored. If it pulls far enough away then we will have mostly sunny sky conditions. Nice day. Pick day of the weekend.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:34 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 8:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:46 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 3, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Nice day.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:33 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 9:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 4, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Nice day. Warmer.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:31 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 10:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 5, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Warm. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:30 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 10:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:33 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night – Some clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Our upper level low will start to push off to the northeast
- We will still have some clouds and precipitation to deal with on Saturday
- Sunday is the pick weather day of the weekend
The main weather maker for the next 24 hours will be the large upper level low centered over the Ohio Valley. This system has been slow to move over the last few days. This is because it has been cut off from the jet stream. These type of systems usually meander and drift vs move.
The good news is that we will have a kicker on Saturday afternoon and night. This will push the upper level low off to the northeast. We should start to see clearing by Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time, Sunday appears to be shaping up to be a nice day. Quite a bit of sunshine and temperatures rising into the 70’s. Can’t beat that!
Temperatures will rise back into the 80’s by next week. It doesn’t look like upper 80’s, but lower to middle 80’s are a good bet.
Another storm system may approach our region by Wednesday and Thursday. We have several days to monitor the timing of the system. I did introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast on Wednesday night.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Some showers will be possible into Saturday. Showers should end by Saturday afternoon or night. Rainfall totals should be fairly light. Perhaps some areas will pick up another 0.25″-0.50″. Many areas will receive much less than that.
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
Sunday morning low temperatures.
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 1 pm.
Regional Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night and Saturday: A rumble of thunder possible. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday night through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday night through Friday: Monitor updates
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Adjusted temperatures and wind conditions. No other significant changes.
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
