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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Unlikely.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor updates. I am watching next Tuesday and Wednesday. A rain or rain/snow system may impact the region.
6. Is freezing rain in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Monitor update. I am watching next Tuesday and Wednesday. A rain or rain/snow system may impact the region.
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, November 9, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:35 PM
Moonset: 7:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South 12 to 24 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:29AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds overnight. A slight chance of a shower. A cold front will move across the region Thursday night/Friday morning. This will bring colder air. Colder air over our western counties vs eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:14 PM
Moonset: 8:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, November 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of showers. Colder. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 1 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming north northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Party to mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 16° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 14° to 22°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:52 PM
Moonset: 10:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, November 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:47 PM
Moonset: 11:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, November 14, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:45PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 12:06AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of rain or snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning a chance of snow, as well.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow/wintry mix.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given time of point.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the chance of icy roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:47PM
Moonset: 12:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 22nd: Severe thunderstorms are currently not anticipated. As always, check future forecast updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm today.
- A chance of sprinkles Thursday/Thursday night. Ahead of a cold front.
- Much colder Friday into next week.
- Watching a system towards the middle of next week.
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Weather advice:
Much colder air will arrive this weekend. A shock to the system. We are going from much above average temperatures to much below average temperatures.
Monitor updates concerning a weather system next Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain or snow will be possible.
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Current Weather Discussion
Drought conditions are going to worsen over the next several days. No measurable precipitation is anticipated.
Temperatures today will be much above seasonal averages. That equals high temperatures in the 70s! Got to love this November weather.
Thankfully, no severe weather with this warmth.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night and Friday. This front is going to bring cold air back into the region.
Temperatures will be well below seasonal averages Saturday and Sunday. As a matter of fact, highs should remain in the 40s Saturday and Sunday. This is going to be a huge shock to the system. We aren’t quite ready for such a dramatic drop in temperatures. We aren’t stair-stepping down. We are tumbling down the temperature stairs.
It is November, so we knew this would eventually happen.
The front, for all practical purposes, will move across the region dry. A couple of sprinkles can’t be ruled out, but nothing to write home about.
A hurricane is expected to hit Florida. Nicole. The main impact from Nicole will be a few tornadoes and storm surge/flooding.
Nicole will push west northwest and eventually be swept northeastward ahead of our strong cold front. This will prevent Nicole from bringing our region much needed rainfall.
You can see from this animation how Nicole moves. Also, notice the blizzard over the Northern Plains.
You can see Nicole spinning into Florida and then up the East Coast. The deep blue over South and North Dakota is a blizzard!
Quite the weather map.
Nicole will help deepen our cold air.
Dry conditions today through Monday night.
Winter Storm Threat?
I am about to tell you a lot of information without telling you what you really want to know. Will it snow or won’t it snow. It is too soon for that. Here we go!
Well, we knew our nice weather couldn’t last forever. Eventually, we would begin to talk about snow and ice. That time has arrived.
I talked about this on Facebook a few days ago.
I caution everyone to remember the following. Models do not handle upper level energy all that well days in advance.
I recommend everyone not share snow maps days in advance. They rarely verify. Sharing maps without commentary is especially unhelpful.
Typically, a decent winter storm forecast (specific numbers) isn’t possible more than 24 to 48 hours in advance. We do a great job of generalities 48 to 72 hours in advance. Anything past that becomes less and less reliable. Confidence in a day three, four, five, six, seven, and eight snowstorm is typically low to very low.
I have watched many snowstorms approach our region and not verify. In other words, it appears something is going to happen and then it doesn’t.
I usually post this graphic for those events!
Those events tend to be in the long-range portion of the forecast.
This event is still six to seven days away. A lot can change. The models are showing wild swings. Some showing no system. Some showing widespread rain. Some showing heavy snow.
Thus is the nature of weather models. This happens year-round. Long-range models don’t do all that well in forecasting specific events.
Thus, confidence in the eventual outcome is very low.
I continue to watch a system towards the middle of next week.
Confidence has increased that we will have at least some type of precipitation event in the region. Missouri, Ohio, and Middle Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. That is a broad area.
Will it be a winter storm, a rain event, or completely miss us? That is the question forecasters are struggling with. The good news is that we still have several days to fine-tune the forecast.
For now, confidence is increasing that some type of precipitation will fall from the sky. I have increased precipitation probabilities.
Now, with that said, there are many questions remaining about this event.
At one point, a few days ago, the GFS model showed a bonified snow storm in our region next Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, with each passing day, it showed a weaker and weaker system. Now, the GFS model is bringing back a stronger event.
This is not unusual for models. They tend to show an event and then lose it. Then bring it back.
What has my interest is that the models have been consistently showing some type of precipitation event.
What does that tell me? It tells me there will likely be a system in the “region” next Tuesday and Wednesday. Region would include anywhere from the Missouri and Ohio Valleys southward to the southlands/Tennessee Valley. That is a fairly wide area.
Let me show you a typical winter storm.
The red L on this example map is the area of low pressure. Cold air is typically found on the north and west side of the low pressure. The cold front is the blue line with triangles. You usually have rain and storms ahead of the cold front. The red line with ovals is the warm front. You can have all types of precipitation along and north of the warm front.
Let me show you some model guidance on the event.
The EC model shows widespread precipitation developing to our west/southwest next Wednesday. It then moves east northeast.
The GFS model shows something similar.
Notice where the red L is located. The red L is the area of low pressure. It is to our south. That means we are on the cold side of this event.
This image below is the operational EC model. Green and yellow represents showers and thunderstorms. Pink is sleet and freezing rain. Blue is snow.
EC shows mostly rain in our region, but it is close.
The idea is not to take specifics from models (this many days in advance). What is important are the generalities. A precipitation event is possible next week.
Here is what the GFS showed from last nights run.
The GFS runs four times each day. We don’t make a forecast based on one model run. We make a forecast based on many variables, many models, and ensembles.
This specific run of the GFS showed a potential rain and snow storm for our region. Widespread rain and snow develops to our southwest and moves northeast. This would be several inches of frozen precipitation. It would mean heavy rain for portions of the region.
Again, just one model run.
Ensembles are mixed on that system.
The general idea is that the more of these squares that match, the greater the confidence in the eventual outcome.
As you can see, many of the squares are dry. Some have rain. Some have snow.
EC ensembles. More and more of the EC ensembles are beginning to show some type of precipitation. Rain and snow.
GEFS ensembles.
Here are the snowfall forecasts from the EC ensembles.
Some show snow. Many do not.
And the second set
Again, ensembles are the same model that is ran over and over again. With slightly different beginning variables.
The mode squares that agree, the more likely the eventual outcome of the weather event.
What does all of that mean?
I continue to monitor trends in the forecast guidance. Some type of precipitation will be possible next Tuesday and Wednesday. The type of precipitation remains a question. The amounts remain in question.
For now, I have capped precipitation chances at thirty-percent.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers November 9th through November 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers November 16th through November 22nd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 22nd through December 5th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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