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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy during the evening with a few remaining light showers. Decreasing cloudiness overnight. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if showers develop)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a few scattered evening showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. There could be a few showers dotting radar.
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November 9, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler than recent days. Near normal to below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures, this time of the year, are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 6-7
Moonrise will be at 1:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy frost and fog possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible in this forecast.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North to east at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 10, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. Small risk for light frost. Better chances on Wednesday night vs Thursday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 11 2016
Veterans Day
Friday: Partly sunny. Cool. A weak cold front will approach from the north. Perhaps a few passing clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 7-14 mph. Winds might be gusty at times. Gusts to 14-18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None. I will monitor the frost potential for Friday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 12, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps a few morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost likely.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Partly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: A few clouds. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Otherwise clear sky conditions. Milder.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Small chance for a shower.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Cooler weather
- Cold front on Friday/Saturday
- Frost potential Thursday and Sunday morning
Well, it rained a little. Not much. Most areas picked up 0.00″ to 0.10″. Isolated higher totals. Might as well have not rained at all.
No real change in the overall pattern. I do not see sustained cold air in the charts. Yes, some cooler air, but nothing dramatic.
I also do not see an end to our drought. Burn bans continue for many of our local counties. If you must burn brush/leaves/debris then check with your local county officials. The risk for fire spread is higher than usual. This is, of course, because of the dry vegetation.
Here is the ten day precipitation anomaly. Bad news. More below normal precipitation anticipated. The second graphic is the ten day precipitation totals. Slim pickings.
How much rain has fallen since the first of November? Not much. Click to enlarge.
How about the last 45 days? Click to enlarge.
Another view
The SPI index is showing dry conditions over most of our local area.
Only 1.17″ of rain has fallen in Paducah, Kentucky since August 26th
Click the image to enlarge. This chart shows you the rain and snow totals since January 1st (Paducah, Kentucky)
Here is the month by month chart. What a difference between summer and fall.
Moving on!
Frost conditions?
There is some chillier weather in the charts. Most areas (probably the entire area) have yet to experience a freeze or killing frost. We will at least have some chance for some 30’s over the coming seven day period. That means a possibility of some frost.
Here are the Thursday morning low temperatures via the GFS model guidance. Some 30’s. We will have to see if frost forms. There should be at least a light frost.
Even cold air arrives this weekend. Here are the Saturday morning low temperatures.
I suspect the coldest air will arrive Saturday night and Sunday morning. You can expect middle to upper 30’s over the region. Frost likely.
We warm up a bit by Monday morning. Low temperatures will mostly be in the 40’s.
I am watching this system around November 18th or 19th. Long way off.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
Light showers possible Tuesday evening. Rainfall totals will be less than 0.10″.
No rain expected Wednesday through at least Sunday.
Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday night through next Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No significant changes.
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No major concerns
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
